A Tunisian U.N. peacekeeper guards the U.N. headquarters in Kinshasa in June 2004. File photo by FINBARR O&${esc.hash}39;REILLY
BRUSSELS (AlertNet)- With the international spotlight on high-profile hotspots such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan&${esc.hash}39;s Darfur region, NGOs are increasingly concerned that conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo may be allowed to escalate unchecked, threatening to unravel the country&${esc.hash}39;s fragile peace process.
Congo is struggling to recover from a five-year war that pitted government forces, supported by Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe, against rebels backed by Uganda and Rwanda. More than three million people were killed either as a direct result of fighting or through hunger and disease.
A 2003 peace deal and the formation of a transitional government, which includes members of former rebel groups and opposition politicians, appeared to signal the end of the conflict. General elections -- the first since independence from Belgium in 1960 - are expected to be held in 2005.
But security remains fragile. The Kinshasa government has no control over large parts of the country and tension remains high in the east. The provinces of Ituri, North Kiva and South Kiva are particularly vulnerable.
Some 10,800 troops, military observers and civilian police are now serving with the United Nations Organisation Mission in the DRC (MONUC). The U.N. Security Council approved in October an additional 5,900 troops for MONUC -- a figure that fell far short of the increase recommended by Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
NGOs say the resumption of fighting this year between two of the armed groups is a clear warning of the risk to the peace process.
In a report on the Ituri region in August, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said: "The international community is slowly awakening to the grim realisation that collapse of the Congo peace process and return to war are real prospects in that giant country."
AlertNet asked experts from the international NGO community about the likelihood of an escalation of violence in the region and possible scenarios that could befall Congo.
Caroline Nursey, regional director, Horn, East and Central Africa, Oxfam GB DRC remains extremely fragile, and the country could slide back into war. The displacement in September of 20,000 people from their homes to a makeshift camp at Ngungu, North Kivu, east DRC, is yet another example of insecurity plaguing the country. Oxfam has begun to build latrines here to avoid outbreaks of disease.Attacks on civilians, looting of villages, raping of women and forced recruitment of child soldiers are reported to take place nearly every day. Armed groups make a forced living off the civilian population, levying taxes on villages, taking their food and pushing people to the brink of survival.
There is a peace deal that has been agreed by the parties, but the benefits are not yet felt by the Congolese people, particularly in the east of the country. It is essential that there is sustained political pressure from other African governments and the international community to consolidate the peace.
This needs to happen alongside a strengthened MONUC that has the capacity and effectiveness to respond, a speeded up programme of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration as well as reform and integration of the army. Without these actions, given its fragility, DRC faces an unpredictable future.
Peter Sampson, analyst, Africa Initiative Programme The most likely scenario in the DRC is that the international community chooses to wait until full-scale crisis, such as Ituri in May 2003, and does not invest enough political will in crisis prevention rather than crisis management.Leaders of different movements continue to pursue their own military options while they claim to support the institutions of the transition, which they are undermining.
The problems of land ownership, community co-existence and the link between economic resources and conflict is not addressed and full scale fighting begins in North Kivu. The Rwanda community continues to fear reprisals while foreign and national actors instrumentalise the suffering of this population to discredit the national government and continue xenophobic messages. The integration of FARDC (Congolese Armed Forces) continues to be slow and MONUC is unable to respond adequately to all crises. Elections are delayed until the government is able to restore order in the East.
Saliman Baldo, director of Africa Program, International Crisis Group Concern is high about the possible unravelling of the peace process, the main problem being that the national government is only paid lip service.As long as the pre-existing political and military structures remain the same, we will have that weakness in the transitional process.
In terms of security, the situation in eastern Congo has not changed, and there is no change in the security situation of many parts of Congo.
The possibility of escalation is there. The parties are not forthcoming and really investing in the national government of unity, and their preference is to keep their armed groups. This is particularly affecting North and South Kivu, and this is where we need to watch for possibilities of escalation.
Judith Melby, international editor, Christian Aid It is a pity that the world&${esc.hash}39;s attention is distracted to by Iraq and Darfur where there is a lot of media attention, when actually there is a much needed commitment on the part of the international community to see the peace process through in the DRC.We need more troops there. But the minute a country such as the DRC falls out of the limelight, no one pays any attention to it. The problems there date back decades; it takes a long term commitment to see it through. It is appalling when you see how everyone neglects the DRC. If you play the numbers game it is far worse than what&${esc.hash}39;s going on in Darfur.
The Congolese are not going to get peace unless we in the West take this seriously. That means paying attention to what is happening with Rwanda, taking a strong stand there and in Burundi and Uganda.
The long term peace building and conflict resolution absolutely has to be done. If there is one group of people that really deserve that extra effort on the part of the international community it is the Congolese.
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