By Syful Islam
DHAKA, Bangladesh (AlertNet) Â? Without adequate intervention, rice production in Bangladesh could see a dramatic decline by 2050 due to the impacts of climate change, even as population is projected to continue rising, researchers say.
"Bangladesh faces formidable challenges to feed its population in the future," note the authors of a new report on adapting Bangladesh's agriculture to climate change.
And the problems may extend well beyond the densely populated, low-lying South Asian nation.
"The present climatic variability is taking its toll in a lot in countries where temperatures are high," said M. Asaduzzaman, research director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies and one of the authors of the study, titled, "Investment in Agriculture for Higher Growth, Productivity and Adaptation to Climate Change".
Rising temperatures, salt intrusion into agricultural fields, drought and other climate-related issues are threatening rice production, he said, and the problems may lead to falling rice harvests in other Asian nations as well, including India and Indonesia, and in some African countries.
Among the worst-hit areas in Bangladesh is the southern Khulna region, at the Bay of Bengal, which is suffering increasing sea water intrusion into fields due to sea level rise. But Bangladesh's higher northern region also is suffering worsening drought, Asaduzzaman said.
AN 18 PERCENT PRODUCTION DROP FORECAST
The threat varies by the type of rice, with production of boro rice Â? a variety the report calls "the lifeline for Bangladesh" Â? most at risk. Harvests of the water-loving winter variety, which requires irrigation, could fall by 18 percent in the Khulna region by 2050.
High yielding boro rice today "accounts for the bulk of the rice grown in the country," the report said. Making up any fall in production with other varieties could also be difficult, as they are also vulnerable to climate-related pressures, particularly droughts and flooding, the report said.
Overall, rice production in Bangladesh is expected to fall by about 3.9 percent a year in the decades leading up to 2050, unless action is taken to counteract the effects of climate change, the report said.
Increasing climate variability is already costing Bangladesh's economy $3 billion a year, and the financial toll could hit $121 billion for the 2005 to 2050 period, the report said.
Curbing the problem and keeping food production at adequate levels will require more than relying on international assistance, Asaduzzaman warned.
"We have to work on our own instead of totally depending on the international community," he told AlertNet.
BANGLADESH A CLIMATE MODEL?
"The government has already taken different steps for adaptation of climate change affects. If the works goes on at its present pace, very soon Bangladesh will become a model in adjusting to climate variability," he predicted.
Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has urged developed countries to come up with technical and financial assistance to help Bangladesh cope with the challenges of climate change, a problem Bangladesh had virtually no role in producing.
But the government is also providing subsidies to the country's agricultural sector in an effort to increase production and improve food security, she said.
Addressing the coming problems, the report said, will require better planning in how to manage water resources, including both groundwater and surface water, and making efforts to use cheaper surface-water irrigation instead of costly groundwater irrigation where possible.
Improving water use efficiency, developing new crop varieties, improving crop diversification, reducing post-harvest losses and overhauling the country's agricultural extension system could also contribute to easing climate-related problems, the report said.
Syful Islam is a senior reporter with The New Nation newspaper in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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