LONDON (AlertNet) Â? Unless the world's poorest countries address climate change in their development plans, they could slip into resource shortages, worsening poverty and conflict over the next 20 years, a new report warns.
But if they can be persuaded that pursuing growth and curbing global warming are not exclusive, they could become much more resilient to predicted climate shocks, says The Future Climate for Development, a report released on Tuesday by the Forum for the Future, a UK-based sustainable development charity.
"So often it's seen as a choice between growing economically or tackling climate change. But that's a false choice," said Peter Madden, chief executive of the organisation, in a telephone interview. "What we're saying is climate change will have such a fundamental impact that if you don't integrate it into development you'll face problems in the future."
The report lays out a range of future scenarios for a world confronting advancing climate change, including one in which regions of the world turn inward, largely abandoning poor countries. In another, climate change is seen as "the ultimate resource crunch", leading to a reworking of how resources can be shared more equitably at national level to benefit the greatest number of people.
One of the more encouraging situations involves poorer nations receiving substantial funding to put them on a low-carbon development path, enticing international corporations to take advantage of green energy opportunities by opening factories.
In the pessimistic scenarios, the report's authors envision crippling price rises for key commodities like food, water and oil, growing conflict over resource shortages, and weakening support for Western-style democracy as it fails to solve problems.
Coming pressures could also result in a turn away from oil-based fertilisers in poor countries, and dramatic lifestyle changes, including enforced vegetarian diets and China-style limits on the number of children per family.
Poor countries that manage the transition to low-carbon development while strengthening democratic institutions will likely find themselves much better placed to cope with these pressures, Madden said.
"If a lot of resource shocks are on the way, the more resilient your democracy, the more likely you are to make it through that," he said.
'WIN-WIN' TECHNOLOGIES
To help low-income countries avoid the worst of the looming problems, donor governments need to make sure the aid they provide now supports low-carbon development, urged the report, which was funded by Britain's Department for International Development (DFID) and is likely to be seen as a roadmap for the aid agencies it funds.
"We can't know the future, but let's try to make our development aid and development paths as resilient as possible," Madden said.
Poor countries themselves also need to move away from what he called "the north-south bargaining game" of pushing for more climate financing and compensation, and focus just as heavily on getting ready to deal with the coming challenges.
The best way to move both sides toward more effective preparation for climate change, Madden said, is to focus on "win-win" policies like improving low-carbon transport, which could limit emissions growth while improving air quality in polluted cities.
Off-grid solar power in Africa is one example that is already working, he said. Remote rural areas in Africa that have never had access to electricity are installing small solar systems that provide power for lighting, cooking, televisions and other needs for the first time. That boosts living standards while stopping people from using greenhouse gas-producing fuels like kerosene and cutting down forests for wood fires.
Such technology is "fundamentally transforming people's lives", Madden said. "You get huge development benefits and huge climate change benefits."
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