* 46 percent against, 35 percent for, 19 percent undecided
* More than $25 million raised by the two sides
By Peter Henderson
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Californians are leaning against a challenge to their vanguard climate change law, according to a Friday Reuters/Ipsos poll on a ballot measure that essentially asks whether going green is good business.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 46 percent of likely voters are against the challenge known as Proposition 23 -- and thus against suspending the climate change law -- and 35 percent in favor of putting it on hold.
But another 19 percent of voters were still undecided with less than three weeks before the Nov. 2 vote.
At stake with Prop 23 are California's leadership on U.S. climate change policy, particularly after federal legislation failed in Congress, and the growth of a nascent alternative energy industry.
Many state manufacturers counter that businesses will surely and steadily close if energy prices go any higher.
More than $25 million has been raised by the two sides, with venture capitalists who back alternative energy start-ups facing off against oil companies.
Prop 23 would put on hold the state's AB 32 law, the basis of the state's commitment to get a third of its electricity from renewables and ambitious plans to create a market for trading rights to emit greenhouse gases. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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AB 32 requires greenhouse gas emissions be cut to 1990 levels by 2020. The Prop 23 suspension would take effect until unemployment, currently over 12 percent, falls to 5.5 percent or less for four straight quarters.
Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger championed the law and has been campaigning against Prop. 23, and both candidates to replace him, Republican Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown, are against it.
"The polling on this has also been pretty consistent. Our two and the Field poll as well have shown a pretty reasonable lead for the 'no' vote," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark. "However 1 in 5 remain undecided and that is enough to tip it on either side."
A Los Angeles Times/USC poll in late September showed a dead heat on the issue.
Both sides are fighting hard and have plenty of money to spend. Opponents of the proposition have raised more than $16 million, including donations from Silicon Valley venture capitalists, environmental groups and $5 million from investor Tom Steyer.
Prop 23 backers have raised more the $9 million, chiefly from oil companies.
Survey respondents were given a summary of the law but not the summary of the state's legislative analyst's office, which forecast a modest increase in economic activity and potentially significant increases in local and state revenue from Prop 23.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week showed voters thought California's climate change law was more likely to create jobs and make the state a leader in clean energy than to hurt the economy by raising energy costs and increasing regulation, by a margin of 47 percent to 38 percent.
That poll also had a Prop 23 question, which was withdrawn because it used outdated ballot language. The results were statistically similar to the new survey, albeit with fewer undecided, Clark said. (for more environmental news see our Environment blog at http://blogs.reuters.com/environment) (Reporting by Peter Henderson; Editing by Mary Milliken and Todd Eastham)
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