CANBERRA, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Australian remained on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol goal to curb carbon emissions, but strong international demand for the country&${esc.hash}39;s coal and gas would see a marked rise in emissions unless more action was taken, the government said on Wednesday.
The latest emissions projections, released by the Climate Change Department, forecast Australia to produce 690 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020, which represents a 24 percent increase in year 2000 emissions.
The forecast is based on current Australian laws, and underlines the need for the country to put a price on carbon emissions to curb pollution, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said in a statement.
"Clearly more needs to be done, and that&${esc.hash}39;s why we need a carbon price, soon," Combet said.
Underscoring the challenge, the government has pledged to cut emissions by at least five percent of year 2000 levels by 2020 , less ambitious than the European Union pledge of cutting emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.
But given the growth of the Australian economy and huge reliance on polluting coal for power generation, a minus 5 percent cut means reducing emissions by 160 million tonnes by 2020, the government said.
Analysts and the government say the longer it takes for a market price on carbon, the harder and costlier it will be to achieve the target.
Fierce political and business opposition fearing higher fuel and power bills has already delayed plans for carbon pricing, with the government shelving a national emissions trading scheme after it was repeatedly rejected by parliament last year.
The government is currently examining options for a carbon price, such as an interim carbon tax, and has pledged to decide this year on measures to curb greenhouse gas pollution and encourage industry to clean up.
The department&${esc.hash}39;s projections said without new policies, emissions would grow 1.8 percent a year between 2010 and 2020, and well above the 0.4 percent growth a year over the past decade.
It said growth over the next decade is driven by strong export demand for Australian coal and gas.
"Fugitive emissions from coal mines and oil and gas projects, as well as direct fuel combustion emissions from LNG projects, accounts for almost half of the growth in Australia&${esc.hash}39;s total emissions from 2010 to 2020," the department said.
The projections found Australian emissions likely to average 582 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the Kyoto period from 2008 to 2012, representing 106 percent of 1990 levels.
That is in line with Australia&${esc.hash}39;s Kyoto target of limiting emissions growth to 108 percent of 1990 by 2012. Australia is one of the world&${esc.hash}39;s biggest per-capita emitters due to a reliance on coal for 80 percent of electricity generation.
In 2010, electricity accounted for 36 percent of emissions, agriculture and direct fuel combustion 15 percent each and transport 14 percent. (Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Ed Lane)
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