Failure to prepare for gradual climate change impacts like worsening droughts could have catastrophic effects on food production, a new study suggests
LONDON (AlertNet) - Failure to prepare for the impact of slow-onset climate changes could have catastrophic effects on food production, according to a new study by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
"Currently the world is focused on dealing with shorter-term climate impacts caused mainly by extreme weather events," said Alexander Muller, FAO’s assistant director-general for natural resources. “This is absolutely necessary.”
But more gradual climate impacts – such as the emergence of prolonged droughts – could create much bigger challenges by fundamentally altering ecosystems and leading to long-term loss of productive land.
That could bring “potentially disastrous impacts on food security” starting in 2050 to 2100, he said.
To avoid that, “we must already today support agriculture in the developing world to become more resilient,” Muller said.
The warnings are in line with a 2009 study in the academic journal Science that predicted that climate change would seriously alter crop yields in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. Without effective adaptation, that study suggested, half of the world’s population could face serious food shortages.
The threat is particularly severe because the population of the world’s equatorial belt - from about 35 degrees north latitude to 35 degrees south latitude - is among the poorest on Earth and is growing faster than anywhere else, according to the Science study.
REDUCING THE THREAT
In its new report, the FAO outlined a number of steps that could be taken to reduce the threat to world food security.
First, food security status should be seen as an indicator of vulnerability to climate change. Food production systems are extremely sensitive to both climate variability and climate change, and changes in temperature and precipitation, and outbreaks of pest and diseases, can reduce harvests.
Poor people in countries that depend on food imports are particularly vulnerable to such climate pressures, the study noted.
"If we're looking to assess vulnerability to climate change, it makes very good sense to look at food security as one important indicator," Muller said.
One way to address that vulnerability will be to develop staple food varieties that are better adapted to expected future climatic conditions.
Plant genetic material stored in gene banks – facilities where genetic samples from thousands of plants and animals are maintained – should be searched for genes that could improve crop resistance to drought, flooding and other climate pressures, the study’s authors said.
Genes from wild food crops should also be collected and studied, they said, particularly because some may be at risk of extinction.
Efforts to breed new heat or drought resistant crops also must adhere to the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources, popularly known as the International Seed Treaty, the FAO said.
This comprehensive international agreement aims at improving food security through the conservation, exchange and sustainable use of the world's plant genetic resources.
The report urges that countries begin to improve food security as a way of lessening the severity of coming climate change impacts. Efforts such as creating biofuels and implementing REDD+, an initiative on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, also will be key in easing problems associated with slow-impact climate change, the report said.
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