Despite warnings, government wasn't well prepared for floods and needs a plan to cope better in future, experts say
BANGKOK (AlertNet) – As Thailand struggles to contain the worst floods in decades, experts are warning the country needs to be better prepared for future extreme weather events likely to be triggered by climate change. which is expected to exacerbate rainfall, storm surges and droughts.
The floods have so far killed 529 people and disrupted millions of lives. To mitigate the impact of such disasters in the future, experts said Thailand needs a comprehensive, long-term policy to tackle floods instead of seeing them as ad-hoc disasters in need of short-term relief.
“Everyone’s expectation is for the frequency and intensity of these sorts of events to occur more often,” Craig Steffensen, Asian Development Bank's country director for Thailand, told AlertNet.
“And if that’s the case, the sooner the authorities have in place a system that could respond to these sorts of challenges, the better,” he added.
A 2009 report by ADB found extreme weather events in Thailand have already become more frequent and damaging, while a 2010 World Bank – ADB joint report predicted an increase of bad weather in Bangkok's flood-prone area.
Despite those warnings the government was caught somewhat unprepared this time, partly because of the sheer volume of water from heavier-than-usual rainfall and more than 9 billion cubic metres – equivalent to some 3.6 million Olympic swimming pools – from upstream dams.
But experts said it is also because of development policies have put people and businesses in vulnerable places and the lack of a comprehensive flood management system that has left many government agencies with overlapping responsibilities but little cooperation.
FROM FLOOD RELIEF TO FLOOD PREPAREDNESS
“Bangladesh offers a good example of a country that has moved from disaster relief to disaster preparedness with the development of pioneering early warning systems,” said Kelly Levin, senior associate at the World Resources Institute and research director for the report “Decision Making in a Changing Climate”.
When Cyclone Sidr battered the country in 2007, early warning systems helped reduce the death toll dramatically to 3,400, compared to a 1991 cyclone of similar magnitude, which killed 140,000 people.
Even if preventing the floods was all but impossible, accurate flood forecasting, better flood hazard maps and defences, and early warning systems for communities on the flood path would have helped, experts said.
“Improved data acquisition from upstream dams regarding flood water release decisions and computer simulations of how that would affect (the flood plains)," are also needed, Steffensen added.
And it is becoming a matter of urgency to be better prepared as a changing climate makes significant and long-term impacts.
While it is difficult to definitively link the floods to climate change, “the floods in Thailand need to be looked at vis-à-vis what’s happening across the region,” Stefenssen said.
“The fact of the matter is, the number and intensity of floods are increasing and it’s true not just in Thailand but also in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and as far west as Pakistan recently,” he added.
BETTER LAND USE AND WATER MANAGEMENT NEEDED
Climate change is only one factor though. Land use planning, water resource management and seasonal tides are also responsible for the destruction wreaked by the floods.
The high level of urban, infrastructure and agricultural development on natural flood plains have increased the number of people and businesses exposed to such natural disasters.
"The 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction told us that risks (of losses from natural disasters) have increased and the real driver is increase in exposure," Jerry Velasquez, senior regional coordinator at the United Nations' disaster reduction agency UNISDR told AlertNet. "What drives exposure? Economic development."
Seven major industrial estates producing everything from cars to electronics are currently under water. The stoppage has not only left hundreds of thousands people jobless but also disrupted global supply chains.
The lack of a single water agency that can cut across different outfits and coordinate disaster response also needs to be tackled, experts said.
Currently multiple government agencies are dealing with water and the infighting between the Flood Relief Operations Command (FROC) set up to handle the disaster and the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority is believed to have slowed down decision-making.
The cabinet had agreed a 325 billion baht ($10.6 billion) budget to rebuild the country and experts are urging the government to consider reducing risks posed by climate change in any rebuilding efforts.
These include activities as simple as teaching children how to swim – close to 70 have died, mostly from drowning – to improving coordination in planning, warning and emergency response decisions amongst disparate agencies, and setting aside buffer zones in flood plains and corridors through which floods may flow.
It might also mean taking measures that are costly upfront, like locating infrastructure in areas not as susceptible to flooding.
“You could prevent construction on the flood plains but that would mean no industrial sites, no jobs. You could put embankments at three-and-a-half metre high, but you won’t get any views,” said Velasquez.
Besides, adapting to climate change involved uncertainty.
“We’re all going to be preparing for floods but the next thing that’ll happen to Thailand might be drought and we won’t have any water,” he added.
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