* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.
Many Tanzanians fear that corruption in the energy sector will deprive the country of vital revenue
DAR ES SALAAM (Thomson Reuters Foundation) — One thing appears certain in Tanzania. Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the country’s revolutionary ruling party, will retain its firm grip on power in October elections, despite the outrage over corruption scandals that are engulfing the energy sector.
Huge discoveries of natural gas promise to put the country on the path to economic prosperity and free it from dependence on foreign aid. Tanzania boasts proven gas reserves in excess of 53.2 trillion cubic feet, which could generate more than $20 billion in net income.
But will the energy discoveries live up to their potential? Well do Tanzanians recall how gold and precious minerals were to be their salvation two decades ago. Today Tanzania is among the world’s Top 20 gold producers and its mining exports were estimated at $1.5 billion in 2010. But annual government revenues from mining total only about 7 percent of that figure, a failing that critics say is due to corruption and badly written contracts with the extractives industry.
Tanzanians fear the same is happening in the energy sector.
The country is desperately short of power, yet development of its gas reserves is painfully slow. Violent protests have erupted over land rights where new pipelines bring the gas ashore from deep-water offshore gas fields. Meanwhile, a scandal has erupted over $122 million withdrawn from an escrow account at the central bank in connection with an electricity deal with Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL), a private energy firm contracted by the state to plug the energy shortfalls.
According to reports to parliament and the anti-corruption agency, the money was transferred to offshore accounts held by private businessmen and government officials. Foreign donors are demanding answers and have suspended $490 million in aid, arrests have begun, three top-level government ministers have resigned and President Jakaya Kikwete has reshuffled his cabinet in response.
Politicians are trying to capitalize on these ructions. A number of opposition parties comprising Chadema, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi and NLD, known collectively as UKAWA, have joined forces to field candidates with some success in local elections. Within the ruling party, top cadres who have declared an interest in running for the presidency when Kikwete’s term expires later this year have split into rival camps.
January Makamba, one of the CCM’s presidential hopefuls, acknowledges the political fallout is damaging his party, which has dominated the country’s politics since independence.
“CCM members are used to landslide election victory, but they must now prepare themselves for any results. Let’s not be surprised if CCM gets 50 percent or 60 percent of the total presidential vote because that is a sign of a growing democracy, and also opposition parties are gaining strength,” he told a local radio station in an interview recently.
Political analysts, however, doubt that the damage is deep enough for the ruling party to be ousted.
“The opposition would like to take advantage of the existing political situation, notably governance shortfalls in the energy sector, to make its case. But the ruling party is still very popular and in a better position to win the presidential vote,” said Benson Bana, a political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam.
Still, suspicions remain high that senior political figures played a central role in the affair and many people are saying that they will evade arrest. And the longer political figures remain immune from prosecution, the deeper the impact of the scandal on the general election.
