* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.
A ten-year deterioration in peace has largely been driven by intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and north Africa
Has the world become more or less peaceful in the past ten years? In the 10th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) we looked to shed light on this question. The index ranks 163 independent states and territories around the world according to their level of peacefulness. It is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness and in our most recent edition, we present the most comprehensive analysis to date on trends in peace and violence over the past 10 years.
The results of the 2016 GPI reinforce the underlying trend of the last 10 years. It finds the world has become slightly less peaceful - by 0.53 per cent - when compared to the prior year. Reflecting the growing inequality in peace, slightly more countries improved than deteriorated, with 81 countries improving their peace scores while 79 countries deteriorated. As the size of the deteriorations were larger than the improvements, there was a decline in the average country score. Two of the three domains of the GPI deteriorated last year. Both the societal safety and security and ongoing conflict domains recorded lower levels of peace, while militarisation recorded a slight improvement.
The indicator with the largest improvement was U.N. peacekeeping funding. This underscores the increasing commitment of the international community to maintaining adequate funding for peacekeeping operations. The second largest improvement was for the security officers and police rate indicator, with the number of countries that have high levels of police and internal security officers decreasing.
The historic ten-year deterioration in peace has largely been driven by the intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Terrorism is at an all-time high, battle deaths from conflict are at a 25 year high, and the number of refugees and displaced people are at a level not seen in sixty years. Notably, the sources for these three dynamics are intertwined and driven by a small number of countries, demonstrating the global repercussions of breakdowns in peacefulness. So intense is the current concentration of violence and conflict in MENA that, when considered separately, the rest of the world’s average peace levels improved. Many countries are at record high levels of peacefulness, while the bottom 20 countries have progressively become much less peaceful, creating increased levels of inequality in global peace.
Our report this year also included further research on Positive Peace, which conceptualises systems thinking and its relationship to Positive Peace. Many of the challenges facing humanity are fundamentally global in nature, such as climate change, decreasing biodiversity, continued economic instability and increasing migration. All of these challenges are interconnected and multifaceted, requiring new ways of conceptualising the relations between countries and the larger systems upon which humanity depends. This year’s report contains an analysis of systems thinking and how it applies to nation states, describing concepts of national intent, their encoded norms, national homeostasis, self-modification and mutual feedback loops to provide a new inter-dependent framework and more holistic approach to understanding peace and development.
As part of this, throughout this year we have also conducted an audit of the available data to measure Goal 16 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For the first time, UN member states have formally recognised the critical nature of peacefulness in advancing global development. The 17 SDGs are a new set of goals to target poverty, inequality, injustice and climate change by 2030. Goal 16 relates to the promotion of peace, justice and strong institutions. Measuring Goal 16 is not an easy task, but it is one that injects accountability into an otherwise elusive yet coveted ambition for the world.
This, the tenth anniversary report presents the most comprehensive analysis to date on the trends in peace and violence over the past decade. In answer to the question, has the world become more or less peaceful, the answer ultimately is less peaceful. Our analysis has given us a new lens through which to analyse peace however, and critically, what the factors are that can ensure peace is built on a solid foundation. Our research on Positive Peace and auditing Goal 16’s progress will continue so we can provide the world with the research, data and insight required to inform decisions we take to secure a more peaceful future. I invite you to read our full report to find out more.
* Steve Killelea is founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace
