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Tropical storm Berguitta is forecast to strike Mauritius as a tropical cyclone at about 00:00 GMT on 18 January. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.8 S, 57.8 E. Berguitta is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 166 km/h (103 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Berguitta's strength (category 2) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).