By Aaron Gray-Block
AMSTERDAM, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Dutch Parliament will vote on Thursday on whether to send a new mission to Afghanistan, potentially the most difficult decision Prime Minister Mark Rutte has had to take since taking office in October 2010.
The last government fell a year ago over whether to pull troops out of Afghanistan and the issue is still deeply divisive among the electorate, across the political spectrum and in terms of relations with the United States. Cables released by WikiLeaks showed the Dutch came under pressure from the United States not to withdraw soldiers from Afghanistan.
Dutch troops were pulled out during 2010, but Rutte, who heads a minority Liberal-Christian Democrat coalition which relies on the support of an anti-Islam party, wants to send a police training mission instead. [ID:nLDE7061B7]
Here are some possible outcomes of the parliamentary vote.
PARLIAMENT REFUSES TO SUPPORT MISSION - MOST LIKELY
If this is the case, Rutte and his minority coalition will be politically exposed, particularly in the run-up to provincial elections in March. It would be his government's most serious defeat in parliament, exposing the fragility of his alliance with Geert Wilders' anti-Islam Freedom Party.
The local elections are important for the government, which has no majority support in the Senate making passage of legislation difficult. The provinces determine the composition of the Senate.
Rutte needs to persuade opposition MPs to back the mission, but the Labour Party, the country's largest opposition party, has refused to give its support, while Wilders, whose party has a pact to support the government giving it a majority in parliament, is also against deployment.
That means Rutte will scramble to win support from the small left-leaning Green party, the Christian Union party and Democrat 66 party. The Greens and Christian Union party have strong misgivings about the mission, while D66 is undecided.
PARLIAMENT BACKS MISSION - SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
This outcome could also be politically difficult for Rutte, given that opinion polls show most Dutch voters oppose sending a mission to Afghanistan.
Rutte has said he is confident of winning parliamentary backing for the mission.
"I really believe in it. Also because I think that myself, not because someone asks me about it," he said this week.
Greens leader Jolande Sap has said the cabinet has to come up with a good story to convince her party, potentially offering a glimmer of hope for Rutte.
Rutte has portrayed the new mission, which would involve the deployment of 545 personnel to the Afghan capital Kabul and the province of Kunduz, as a training force to help improve the skills of the local police.
In a briefing paper, the Clingendael Institute in The Hague said the deployment was mainly made up of soldiers rather than trainers, causing questions about the safety of the mission and the extent to which it would contribute to security in Kunduz.
"This can raise the question of whether it can really be called a civil training mission," the research institute said.
MISSION GOES AHEAD WITHOUT PARLIAMENT'S BACKING - UNLIKELY
If Rutte chose to ignore parliamentary opposition, it would potentially cause a rift with his Freedom Party ally, and upset voters ahead of the March 2 provincial elections.
In the past, Dutch governments have tried to obtain broad majority support in parliament before sending military personnel abroad on peacekeeping and reconstruction missions.
Legally, the cabinet could push ahead with the mission even if parliament voted against it, but such a move would be unpopular with voters.
A Maurice de Hond poll showed on Sunday just 15 percent of voters believed the government should still go ahead with the mission if parliament voted against it.
"It would create a lot of agitation in the country if Rutte then actually sent a mission," said Rinus van Schendelen, professor of political science at Rotterdam University.
VOTE IS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER ELECTIONS - POSSIBLE
Rutte is unlikely to want to face provincial elections if he has just lost a vote on the Afghanistan mission, so he could get around that by postponing a vote.
If the Greens, Christian Union and D66 are still vacillating, he might decide to withdraw the proposal and submit a new plan to parliament after the elections. (Editing by Sara Webb)
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