This is a make or break moment for Afghanistan. Western governments and international funders at this week&${esc.hash}39;s donor conference in London have a golden opportunity to consolidate and increase their investment in the country&${esc.hash}39;s stability. If they fail to embrace it, they will undermine the future of Afghanistan at a most fragile time.
2006 marks the fifth year since the fall of the Taliban, a critical point in terms of stabilisation and reconstruction efforts.
Many examples of post-conflict state failures have demonstrated the fragility and instability of peace at this stage. Decreases in international support at this point, often as the political spotlight swings elsewhere, have been seen time and again to act as a catalyst for renewed conflict. This happened in Afghanistan&${esc.hash}39;s recent history after the Soviet withdrawal.
But despite the delicate timing and historical warnings, and despite its vast under-funding compared with other post-conflict places such as Kosovo, the international community again risks turning its back on Afghanistan. Concern about U.S. troop pull-outs and reports of decreases in aid money abound.
Short-term thinking could prove disastrous for Afghanistan. To turn the tide of recent events and ensure a lasting stability in the region, donors must instead step up their long-term commitment, both political and financial.
The problems of Afghanistan &${esc.hash}39; security, opium and poverty - are as complex as they are intertwined and can only be addressed successfully with sustained solutions that address the underlying causes, not just superficial symptoms.
Afghanistan is an incredibly poor country &${esc.hash}39; with the lowest development indicators in Asia, limited infrastructure, difficulty competing in the free market and a great dependence on high-risk variables such as security and the weather.
Crime is a serious problem. Security incidents continue with worrying frequency and magnitude and are an increasing risk, not just for the military, but for the general public, police officers, teachers and aid workers too. Recent reports indicate that there have been more insurgency-related deaths in the past year than in any year since 2001.
On top of that, the opium trade presents a huge problem for the future, propping up Afghanistan&${esc.hash}39;s fledgling economy. The country has by far the greatest dependence of any national economy in the world on an illicit drug. It is estimated that opium makes up more a third of the national economy, whilst being a major corrupting influence in the incipient government.
The opium economy is the clearest example of why a holistic and long-term approach is vital. Experience from across the world, from Thailand to Colombia, demonstrates that short-term eradication and military-led strategies are likely to fail.
Instead, sustained investment in promoting alternative livelihoods and law enforcement is required. This kind of response needs a commitment of decades, not just years.
The Afghan government will be proposing its solutions in its five-year Afghan National Development Strategy at the London conference. It will push for donors to back the plan and to sign the &${esc.hash}39;Afghanistan Compact&${esc.hash}39; - a document committing both sides to deliver on benchmarks across the most pressing issues facing the country: security; governance and the rule of law; human rights; sustainable economic and social development; and counter narcotics, within a five-year timeframe.
That the government has developed this strategy is an important start, as Afghan-ownership will be central to its success. But Kabul will continue to need the support of the international community if it is to be able to uphold its end of the Afghanistan Compact and follow through on the Afghan National Development Strategy. It is only with time and effort that the government of Afghanistan will be able to survive and serve its people adequately on its own.
The worst case scenario for Afghanistan is that London is remembered as the &${esc.hash}39;last Afghanistan Conference&${esc.hash}39;, instead of a moment of recommitment in a long-term relationship between donor governments, donor institutions and Afghanistan.
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