As the death toll from Cyclone Nargis rises, Myanmar's ruling military junta has taken the unprecedented step of asking for international assistance. With cracks in the secretive military's isolationism appearing, food prices soaring, and frustrations mounting, many commentators are now wondering whether the repressive regime's days could be numbered.
Britain's Telegraph newspaper writes that political change could now be on the horizon in the country also known as Burma. By breaking with their isolationist policies and asking for international assistance it's clear that the country's military junta is panicking, the paper says.
In the short term, the delays in delivering aid mean that it's likely that survivors will strongly reject the new constitution in a referendum scheduled for next Saturday in unaffected areas, and May 24 in the flooded provinces. Even this notoriously secretive regime will have difficulty covering this up, the paper says. And after that, with shortages of basic supplies already affecting the population, there is a strong chance that a new protest movement could be triggered, it says.
And there are greater opportunities for the international community to influence events inside the country too. Genuine dialogue, albeit over tents and food supplies for now, could now bring about real change, the paper says. "Maybe this is a chance to open a crack in Burma's crippling isolation."
The Boston-based Christian Science Monitor agrees that the junta's inadequate response could well trigger a street-level campaign to vote against the proposed new constitution, echoing last September's fuel-price protests that illicited a brutal military crackdown.
When it comes to food shortages and international aid, however, the Monitor says it's likely that the government will allow enough aid into the country to avoid protests on the scale of last September, but won't allow enough in to damage its rule.
"The world needs to find a way to use its aid to create a real path to democracy in Burma, the kind that reacts well when its citizens cry out for help," the magazine says.
For Larry Jagan, writing in the South China Morning Post, the rising tide of anger in the country could be the "tipping point that finally leads to the toppling of the junta."
Many ordinary people in Myanmar are beginning to ask questions about why the government hasn't acted quickly, and why it's reluctant to allow United Nations personnel to help much-needed supplies and equipment, according to the paper.
"A repeat of last September's mass protests, initially triggered by rising fuel prices, is increasingly likely, especially if the government continues to disregard the main concerns of the people further crippled by the cyclone," he says.
For Simon Tisdall, writing in Britain's Guardian newspaper, it's by no means clear that the junta's days are numbered.
"It may be that the prising open of Fortress Burma's gates by an advancing army of humanitarian workers will wreak a permanent, beneficial change in the country's relations with the outside world," he writes.
More likely, however, is that the cyclone disaster will have the opposite effect and the crisis could divert attention away from the junta's self-serving referendum.
"If they are allowed to, the generals will simply take what they need in the short term, then carry on dictating," he warns.
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