The sight of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir dancing and promising peace during a recent visit to Darfur was the first of many surprises to result from moves by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to indict him on charges of genocide and war crimes in the region.
The recent efforts by ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo to issue a warrant for Bashir's arrest provoked widespread concern that the moves would destabilise ongoing peace efforts, and jeopardise aid operations and regional security. Yet, the Sudanese government's reaction has so far surprised many commentators.
Simon Tisdall says in Britain's Guardian newspaper that the diplomatic nature of Bashir's response to the ICC moves has been a real shock.
"Khartoum has suddenly resumed diplomatic relations with neighbouring Chad, with which it threatened to go to war earlier this year. And Abdel Basit Sabderat, the justice minister, is talking about holding Darfur war crimes trials in Sudan's own courts," Tisdall writes.
"The beckoning solution, therefore, is improved cooperation by Khartoum on ending the emergency in Darfur and on other issues in return for the security council freezing the case against Bashir."
But, Tisdall cautions, the West must still be careful not to push too hard. Bashir could still, in desperation, resort to the violent tactics he has so far avoided.
Suilman Baldo also says that the ICC moves have changed the government's approach to Darfur.
"The regime recognizes that it will have to take tangible, positive steps in Darfur, if its allies on the Security Council are to succeed in persuading the Council to defer further ICC action. For Sudan's government, the imperatives of survival make this opportunistic collaboration with the international community a plausible next step, in the current crisis triggered by the ICC action of 14 July," Baldo writes.
Meanwhile, in the New York Times, Lydia Polgreen and Jeffrey Gettleman write that the ICC's ruling seems to have so far only strengthened President Bashir's grip on power.
"In the past few weeks, one sworn political enemy after another has closed ranks behind him. A result has been a swift and radical reordering of the fractious political universe in Sudan, driven in part by national pride but also by deep-seated fears that the nation could tumble into Somalia-like chaos if Mr. Bashir were removed as president."
For now, Polgreen and Gettleman say, political elites have chosen to side with Bashir. They hope that if they can provide evidence of progress in Darfur and persuade the international community that an arrest warrant would create more problems than it would solve, the Security Council will act to hold back the criminal court.
But not everyone in Sudan is mobilised behind the president. One of the other surprises to emerge from Moreno-Ocampo's request is the level of popular support in favour of the ICC, Peter Harrington writes in the Guardian. He says that in the markets of the capital Khartoum, it is now possible to buy a design of tobe (the traditional garment worn by Sudanese women) called "the Ocampo", showing people are willing to display considerable bravery in their attempts to show their opposition to the government. There is also reported to be an Ocampo dance, he writes.
Rony Brauman, meanwhile, writes in the
World Politics Review that it's not only the Sudanese government that could yet respond to the ICC moves with violence.
"It is a good bet now that the protagonists of the Darfur conflict will become more intransigent. The rebel movements will be justified in thinking that they have won a battle and they have no reason to stop there. How could anyone blame them for not wanting to negotiate with a genocidal regime?"
Brauman concludes that: "This encouragement to them to fight could set in motion a new cycle of violence and reprisals, both the humanitarian and political consequences of which would be disastrous."
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