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UNEP GRID ARENDALProjected losses in food production due to climate change by 2080. Based on a consensus estimate of 6 climate models and two crop modelling methods, Cline (2007) concluded that by 2080, assuming a 4.4� C increase in temperature and a 2.9% increase in precipitation, global agricultural output potential is likely to decrease by about 6%, or 16% without carbon fertilization. Cline suggested a range of output potential decline between 10 and 25% among regions. As climate change increases, projections have been made that by 2080 agricultural output potential may be reduced by up to 60% for several African countries, on average 16-27%, dependent upon the effect of carbon fertilization (Figures 18 and 19). These effects are in addition to general water scarcity as a result of melting glaciers, change in rainfall patterns, or overuse.
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