NEW DELHI Â? Government plans to allow hundreds of thousands of war-displaced Pakistanis to return home early could compromise their security and leave them without access to basic services, aid workers warn.
Around 2.5 million people have fled their homes in the scenic Swat valley and other parts of the north due to fighting between the Pakistani army and Taliban militants - 2 million of these since a fresh offensive to expel the insurgents was launched at the end of April.
Swat's former residents - living in camps without privacy or in host communities, where as many as 25 people share one room - are clinging to the hope of going home soon, now that the army says it has cleared militants from much of the region.
Government forces recaptured Mingora, the main town in Swat, over a week ago and army commanders say that once water and electricity services are restored, the displaced could start to return as early as June 17.
Aid workers warn, however, that they face harsh and potentially dangerous conditions.
"We can see that the humanitarian situation needs security, resumption of basic services, establishment of electricity and the clearing of unexploded ordnance," said Manuel Bessler, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Pakistan, adding that it is the government's responsibility to decide which areas are safe for civilian return.
As the region has been under Taliban control, analysts say there is an essential need to build a civilian police force and judicial system to ensure the safety of local communities.
"The Pakistan government should prioritise police training and other mechanisms to enhance the capacity of civilian law enforcement agencies to maintain security after the military operation ends," recommends the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report.
Landmines and other unexploded weapons pose an additional security risk, with U.N. assessment teams that have visited the conflict zone reporting that they are scattered across wide areas.
While there are plans to launch mine awareness programs for civilians before they return, aid workers say public areas Â? especially around schools, hospitals and markets - must be cleared of weaponry urgently.
RESURGENT THREAT?
The operation against hardline militants, which began in early May, now shows signs of widening to Taliban strongholds along the Afghan border. Meanwhile, there are fears the Taliban could regroup and return to areas the army has "cleared" - as occurred in Swat following an offensive in late 2007 - carrying out revenge executions on returning civilians.
Aid workers say there appears to be no coherent mechanism in place for verifying that areas are safe or that people will not put themselves at risk of harm or further displacement if they return.
"One of our key concerns is to know exactly what is meant by the government or army declaring an area 'safe' or 'clear'," said Michael Young, country representative for the International Rescue Committee.
"We've had examples in the past where return has been encouraged to areas in Bajaur agency, where many returnees remain at risk from the Taliban. Some fought the Taliban in the past, so they have a real fear of continued persecution. Unless the area really is secure, returnees may be putting themselves at risk of harm or renewed flight," Young said.
The army has promised to remain in places like Mingora for at least a year to help support a community police force being mobilised by the government.
It is clearly worried that insurgents could reappear, aid workers say. For example, villagers who have gone back to "cleared" parts of Buner have been told not to grow crops like maize as they provide excellent cover for militants.
NO BASIC SERVICES
Besides security threats, residents who go home in the short term face life without essential services. The conflict has disrupted electricity, water and telecommunications in towns and villages in Swat, Buner and Lower Dir districts.
Hospitals and clinics are no longer functioning due to a lack of staff and medicines. Schools and colleges are closed, and markets are not trading. Fields lie fallow as many farmers fled in the middle of harvesting their wheat, maize and tobacco crops, losing their incomes for the entire year.
There is concern the authorities may be pushing people to go back too early, fearing that prolonged displacement could erode broad public and political support for the military offensive. Relief groups say those who have fled should only return when they feel safe and able to sustain themselves.
"In some areas, we are already seeing the head of the family going back home for one or two days to check on their property and harvest their crops," said one aid worker. "I think this is what will continue to happen...until they feel confident to take the whole family back and resume their lives."
Aid agencies say programmes aimed at restoring livelihoods need to be planned now before people start to return. The ICG report urges the government to devise a blueprint for longer-term reconstruction, focusing on the area's once vibrant agricultural, horticultural and tourism sectors, which have been severely affected by years of militancy and armed conflict.
But displaced communities complain they are getting mixed messages from different government bodies on plans for their return.
"There has to be a clear pronunciation of what people will actually have as part of their return and reintegration package," said Kilian Kleinschmidt, assistant representative for the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) in Pakistan. "That hasn't been really spelled out yet ... Returnees must know what awaits them back home."
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