By Laurie Goering
COPENHAGEN (AlertNet) Â? Deaths from climate-related natural disasters are falling around the world as early warning systems, storm shelters and other protections are put in place.
But economic losses from hurricanes, floods, droughts and other extreme weather as a percentage of total disaster losses are growing, a worrying trend not just for affected families but for governments, aid donors, insurers and the like, disaster risk reduction experts said at climate talks in Copenhagen.
Of 245 disasters in 2009, 224 were weather-related, and those weather disasters accounted for 55 million of the 58 million people affected by disaster around the globe, according to new
figures released by the World Health Organisation and the Belgian Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters.
About 7,000 people died from weather-related disasters in 2009, a 10-year low, the figures showed. But climate-related disasters accounted for 84 percent of economic losses from disasters, or about $15 billion.
That is likely to continue to grow as climate change brings more severe storms around the world, particularly in coastal regions where half the world's population lives, said Margareta
Wahlstrom, the U.N.'s disaster risk reduction chief.
Such concerns are one reason negotiators at Copenhagen are struggling to reach agreement on a new climate pact, with richer nations concerned they could be held accountable for paying the
growing costs of recovery from climate-related disasters in the developing world.
The new disaster statistics, Wahlstrom said, do not adequately represent the threat from drought, something she called "the most complicated disaster to capture in statistics", largely
because it takes hold slowly and kills slowly, usually through malnutrition and generally worsened health.
From 1970 to 2008, drought accounted for less than 20 percent of disasters reported in Africa, but it produced 80 percent of disaster victims, she said.
Another problem is figuring out just how much of the increase in weather-related disasters can be attributed to climate change.
Population increases, weak infrastructure, urbanisation, political considerations and deforestation, as well as global warming, can all play a role in boosting the number of
climate-related events that turn into disasters, said Debarati Guha-Sapir of the Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters.
Right now, "we don't know which factor contributes how much to the increase," she said.
That can make it difficult for nations seeking funding for adaptation to climate shifts, for instance, to prove what percentage of their vulnerability is attributable to climate change as opposed to self-created risks.
Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organisation, warned that increasing intensity and frequency of storms means nations building defences can no longer rely on historical data to guide their planning.
"Unfortunately, the past is no longer a good indicator to plan for the future," he said. Floods or other extreme events that once happened every 400 years in some places now happen every
five years.
Hurricanes, flooding from storm surges and tsunamis are all expected to become worse in coming decades as a result of sea level rise, which means new dykes, dams and other protective
measures will have to be built based on the likely scenario for the future.
The good news, Jarraud said, is that some countries once devastated by severe storms are now managing them much more successfully.
Bangladesh lost at least 300,000 people in a 1970 cyclone, prompting a rush to build early warning systems and concrete storm shelters. When another big cyclone hit in 2007, the death toll was 3,500.
Cuba similarly last year came through a terrible hurricane season, with five major storms hitting the island, and suffered only seven deaths, Jarraud said.
Similar work now needs to be done on giving advance warning of droughts to cut economic losses and loss of lives, he said.
The message is "we cannot prevent natural disasters ... but we can be sure we provide the right information to prevent these extreme events turning into disasters," Jarraud said.
The alternative is a steady loss in progress toward cutting poverty and other development goals, said Olav Kjorven, policy director of the U.N. Development Programme.
Extreme weather destroys jobs and schools for children, he said, and can create losses over decades or generations. As climate change takes hold, he warned, "creating conditions of dignity
for human development will become more difficult."
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