NAIROBI (AlertNet) - It has been five years since Sudan's government and southern rebels signed a deal to end more than two decades of north-south civil war, but a sharp rise in ethnic violence threatens to further undermine the fragile peace.
In the latest attack in south Sudan, armed Nuer tribesmen killed at least 139 members of the rival Dinka tribe, an official said on Thursday.
The news broke on the same day 10 aid agencies warned that rising violence, chronic poverty and political tensions had left the 2005 comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) on the brink of collapse.
Their report, titled "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan", was
issued ahead of national elections planned for April -- Sudan's first multi-party vote in 24 years -- and a southern referendum on independence in 2011.
Many Sudanese are concerned that these two events could serve as flashpoints for more violence in a country which still struggling to emerge from a war that killed some 2 million people, drove 4 million more from their homes and destabilised
much of east Africa.
AlertNet interviewed three experts on what action should be taken by President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP), the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM), the international community and aid agencies.
The experts were: Edward Thomas, a historian and analyst specialising in Sudan for UK-based thinktank, Chatham House, Richard Poole, director of International Rescue Committee in South Sudan, and Stephan Goetghebuer, the director of operations in Sudan for Médecins sans Frontières (MSF).
What should northern and southern leaders do?
Edward Thomas: The leaders of northern and southern Sudan have shown a great skill for doing these audacious, last-minute deals. But they have not addressed fundamental causes of the conflict. The CPA offered an opportunity to revisit these causes but that has not been done. The parties have been pre-occupied with high politics and neglected the ordinary people. It is important, in this coming year, for them to start investing in ordinary life and at the same time, come up with historical decisions for their people.
Richard Poole: I have a profound affection for the north and the south and I have lived there for many years. I think there is an
enormous amount of goodwill to try and resolve this is a respectful manner. The process needs supporting and monitoring. It's a miracle that the CPA was signed in the first place. It's
a miracle that the process is still on track and that there is a possibility of a favourable outcome of the referendum process. If the referendum does not go ahead we can expect a return to civil war.
Stephan Goetghebuer: As MSF, we don't make political comments but we want the parties to the conflict to make should that everything they do there must be civilian protection who are the
victims of war and violence. There is also a problem of access to the north and this is specific to the north, where we have visa problems and access to people in need of aid. They can facilitate more humanitarian response to make sure people don't suffer more.
What should the international community do?
Edward Thomas: U.S. engagement is going to be constructive and useful in bringing the elites together. The U.S. pays a lot of money in aid to Sudan and it does have a lot of capacity to
change things. China and India are the other countries with huge investments in Sudan. They should invest in stability. They need to never think of investing in instability but a government more accountable to the people. The alternative to a freer and fairer Sudan is a very volatile and unfair Sudan and that is not going
to be in their interest.
Richard Poole: The U.S. and the Europeans have not paid as much attention to the world view of fundamentalist Islam as they should have done, in relationship with the government. As a
consequence, some of the policies have not been relevant. It was perfectly clear they (Sudanese officials in the north) felt they were not being respected by the international community. There
was not respect for their values and their attitude was dismissive. If the international community enter into dialogue in a respectful manner, as the Obama administration is doing, we
think they will have a positive outcome.
Stephan Goetghebuer: The international community has put so much pressure on the parties to fulfil their political obligation. But they also control the funding mechanism of the development response for Sudan. They need to channel resources to the emergency needs from increasing political violence in southern
Sudan. At the moment the direct impact of the violence and the level of need are not matched with the level of resources.
What should aid agencies do?
Edward Thomas: Aid agencies need to deal with the local political crises that erupt into this terrible violence. These are partly to do with the economies not working out and the way
people are being ethnicised. Development resources, aid and the petrol money must support the people to emerge from a terribly traumatic war.
Richard Poole: If the CPA falls apart, the humanitarian crisis will be on a scale that is unprecedented. Aid agencies should put contingencies in place.
Stephan Goetghebuer: Humanitarian actors should develop emergency response mechanisms and intervene more (to deal with) the impact being caused by the violence in the south. Most aid
agencies are still in development mode when increasing violence is creating a humanitarian crisis.
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