By Frank Nyakairu
KAKUMA, Kenya (AlertNet) - Although it has been five years since a peace deal was signed to end Sudan's long north-south civil war, Sudanese refugee Nul Deng Lwal says he has no intention of returning home.
For the past 16 years, Lwal has lived in a border refugee camp in Kenya where most of his 10 children were born. In the camp -- located in the northwestern semi-arid corner of Kenya's
Great Rift Valley and run by the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR -- Lwal keeps a close eye on developments in his country.
The 59-year-old English teacher hails from South Sudan's Jonglei state, one of the areas worst affected by a surge in tribal violence last year. Most of the 2,500 people thought to have been killed in clashes died in Jonglei.
Lwal says it is this insecurity coupled with continued poverty that is preventing thousands of southerners like him from returning home -- a view shared by many in the camp.
"If I critically look back now, I have lost more family members in the last five years of so-called peace than I did in the two decades of Sudan's war," Lwal told AlertNet in an
interview under a tree by his mud and wattle hut.
He said he had lost most of family members in tribal violence.
The war, which killed an estimated 2 million people and forced 4 million to flee, ended when President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's government signed a peace accord with southern rebels in 2005.
Even though United Nations says 40,000 South
Sudanese have gone home in the last five years, 18,000 still reside in Kakuma, sharing the camp with some 40,000 refugees, including those who have fled Somalia.
"NOTHING TO RETURN TO"
Despite the formation of a coalition government, political tension has simmered in Africa's biggest country, and many Sudanese fear more violence ahead of Sudan's first fully multi-party presidential and legislative elections in 24 years.
Armies from both sides, and an array of rebel groups and militias, are also stockpiling arms ahead of any conflict, despite U.N. and European Union arms embargoes, according to a December 2009 report by the Small Arms Survey.
Bashir's ruling National Congress Party and the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement have already accused each other of fraud and intimidation during early campaigning and voter registration before next month's vote.
"I cannot go back to Sudan now because everyone has been duped by the situation which will, sooner rather than later, explode and you will see many more refugees coming back here," Lwal said.
Lwal's concerns were echoed by Marko Dut, the chairman of the Sudanese Refugees Community.
"Most of our people here have nothing to return to at all and the fear of current insecurity and the political tensions make them stay in the
refugee camp," Dut said.
Campaigning in the south by Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Sudan's Darfur region -- caused dismay for some.
"I cannot comprehend how an indicted criminal can move around looking for political support in communities which he bombed every day," Lwal said.
CONTINGENCY PLANS
The intensity of tribal violence in Lakes, Warap and Jonglei states has caused some southern leaders to accuse their old foes in the north of political meddling. Khartoum denies the
accusation.
Mindful of the potential for more tribal clashes, UNHCR is making contingency plans for up to 40,000 new refugees from Sudan.
"We are monitoring Sudan very closely because of insecurity in some parts and we have developed contingency plans for 10,000 and in the worst case scenario 40,000 refugees," said Emmanuel
Nyabera, spokesman for UNHCR in Kenya.
Political tension is also likely to be a feature ahead of a referendum on southern secession due in January 2011. Many experts believe the south, which largely follows Christianity and traditional beliefs, unable to overcome its mistrust of the Muslim, Arabic-speaking north, will vote for independence.
Sudanese rapper James Wanyjok, 21, who has recorded five political songs since dropping out of a Kenyan school last year hopes they will influence the outcome.
"My songs call on all southerners to vote for separation from the north because the Arabs donÂ?t want us to grow," said Wanyjok who rehearses his music in a clinic after hours and says
his songs are played on FM stations in South Sudan.
"My fans in South Sudan say they want to see the man behind the music, and I tell them: I can only come back to an independent republic of South Sudan."
(Editing by Katie Nguyen)
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