By Olesya Dmitracova and Frank Nyakairu
LONDON/NAIROBI (AlertNet) - Sudan goes to the polls on Sunday in presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections that are central to a 2005 peace deal between the ruling party and former southern rebels following more than two decades of civil war.
Tensions are running high after two main opposition parties decided to boycott the polls in most of the north, complaining of widespread fraud, and as key issues between the north and south remain unresolved.
AlertNet has gathered views from experts on possible humanitarian developments after the national and regional elections and a planned January 2011 referendum on southern Sudan's independence, also promised under the peace deal.
In most scenarios, human suffering is likely to deepen in Sudan, particularly in its southern region - which is by far the poorest in the country and wracked by inter-tribal fighting.
If the south becomes independent, as many believe it will, many southerners living in the north fear attacks from northern nationalists and could leave the region.
But experts fear the war-devastated south, which has little infrastructure, would not be able to handle a mass influx of southerners, sparking more conflict over scarce resources.
Violence related to the elections or disagreements between the north and south could force many in southern Sudan to abandon their homes and farms, leading to reduced food output in a region that already has high levels of hunger.
Fouad Hikmat, Sudan analyst for International Crisis Group
"The question is going to be about the legitimacy of the elections. The (ruling) NCP (National Congress Party) wants legitimacy and that depends on the legal aspect of the poll results, whether observers either reject or endorse the election," Hikmat told AlertNet. He added that if the referendum on the future of the south does not take place, it will be a trigger for war.
"We have 2.7 million people displaced in Darfur and more than half of the population (is receiving) humanitarian support, while in south Sudan humanitarian relief is a key and major aspect for the livelihoods of between 50 and 60 percent of the population," Hikmat said. "If the election crisis turns violent, that might disrupt this very important (aid) process and support and reverse the gains made."
Helene Gayle, president of CARE USA
"It's a difficult country right now - there has been a lot of tension between government and the international NGO community. We had a temporary suspension of our programmes there but we are back in operation," Gayle told AlertNet.
"The situation is changing every day with the political strife and tension that is increasing, which also affects the humanitarian situation. Our hope is that people will act in the best interest of the Sudanese people and figure out a way to reduce the tensions so that there won't be a further humanitarian crisis."
Refugees International
"If south Sudan opts for independence in 2011, as looks likely, there will be considerable need for donor governments to support the Government of Southern Sudan to ensure that its structure and leadership are capable of successfully delivering services to its people and protecting them," the U.S.-based advocacy group said in a report last month.
IKV Pax Christi
"It is very likely that the current situation will deteriorate and that violence and armed conflict will continue in Sudan," the Netherlands-based peace-building organisation said in a report late last year.
"Conflict may be between the north and the south, and divide and rule strategies may also stimulate (internal) north-north or south-south conflict. Even if the north and south separate peacefully, they are likely to each have their own internal conflicts."
Norwegian Refugee Council
"Displacement and humanitarian needs will continue to increase dramatically in 2010 due to intra-Southern conflicts resulting from inter-ethnic tensions, water and grazing rights disputes, food insecurity and political marginalisation of minority ethnic groups," the organisation specialising in displacement said in a study last month.
A lack of agreement on key issues including the long-delayed demarcation of the north-south border and how oil revenues will be shared after the referendum could lead to a renewal of armed conflict, NRC added.
United States Institute of Peace
"Absent a change in current trends, further political violence in Sudan will be hard to avoid," the institute said in a 2009 report, which listed three scenarios.
Scenario 1: "Without a change in its current capacity to govern, the south devolves into a downward spiral of violence, even in the absence of aggression from the north or a loss of existing donor support."
Scenario 2: "The failure to build trust and address key issues between the north and south prior to the referendum results in violence after the referendum."
Scenario 3: "With concerted effort, robust international engagement, and some progress on key issues, the parties avoid large-scale violence."
European Union Institute for Security Studies
"The separation of southern Sudan from the north of the country in 2011 or even before is very likely - a transition that will probably not take place without violence," the group said in a publication in November.
"Prevention and mitigation of violent conflicts in the country will remain necessary for decades to come."
Clingendael Conflict Research Unit
"The vote in 2011 on whether southern Sudan should secede will have a tremendous impact that will be felt well beyond its own borders, regardless of the outcome," the Netherlands-based group wrote last month.
"An armed confrontation between north and south looms, while the latter faces political fragmentation and escalating tribal violence, so that its neighbours, which have doubts about the governance capacity of the GoSS (Government of Southern Sudan), have every reason to be on the alert. Mass inflows of refugees, unrestrained cross-border movements of arms and combatants, and a spill-over of instability, are valid neighbourhood concerns."
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