CHISINAU (TrustLaw) - Moldova's fragile year-old government has a lot on its plate: political uncertainty, deadlock over the presidency and the effects of a global recession that has deepened the misery in one of Europe's poorest countries.
The four-party Alliance for European Integration came to power after a parliamentary poll in April 2009 returned the former ruling communists to power, sparking violent protests. The unrest forced a snap election in July which the liberal, West-leaning alliance clinched with a slim majority.
But the outlook for the government is precarious.
The small ex-Soviet republic has been without a president since last September and rivalry between the coalition and the opposition Communists has repeatedly doomed attempts to elect a new one.
Analysts say success in stamping out corruption is vital to the coalition’s long-term political survival, aspirations to lift the country out of poverty and its bid to join the European Union.
"Corruption and governance are at the top of their agenda, and I think rightly so," said Franklin Steves, political counsellor at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Experts said if the Alliance is to stay in power, it must take visible action against widespread corruption that is blighting business, health care, education, the judiciary and police in the small country wedged between Ukraine and Romania.
It must also make progress in depoliticising the judiciary and the police, and raise business and economic practices to EU standards to make Moldova more appealing for foreign investors.
CLAMOUR FOR CHANGE
The first problem Moldova's leaders must address is weak law enforcement which fuels corruption and nepotism, "the cancers in the economy and the society", said IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit Gevorgyan.
"It's a daunting task. If they manage to tackle this issue, they will be in power a long time," she told TrustLaw. "This is what people are looking for and this is what they want."
Indeed, according to a May 2010 survey of the public's concerns, corruption and other violations of the law worry Moldovans the most after economic problems and their children’s future.
The poll also showed that "bringing order to the country" was one of the three most important problems that must be resolved.
The stakes are high for the country of about 4 million where the average monthly pay is less than $300 - and the substantial part of the population that works in farming earns less than half that - while many food and clothing items are as expensive as in the West.
But the delicate balance between the ruling coalition and the opposition in parliament means that it is likely to be a rocky ride, complicated by voters' high expectations of the new government, analysts say.
"They have a problem with their image. They need to show the people that they are different, not like the old leadership," said Liliana Vitu, a Chisinau-based political analyst who has written for the Economist Intelligence Unit and Freedom House.
Criminal investigations into high-profile corruption cases that result in prosecutions would go a long way in sending the right message to voters and investors, Vitu said.
POLITICAL CONNECTIONS
Between 2001 when the communists came to power and 2009, Moldova's ranking in an index by Transparency International, which measures perceived levels of public sector corruption in 180 nations, slipped from 63rd to 89th.
Moldova's current ranking is far behind those of Bulgaria, Romania and Greece - the most corrupt members of the European Union, according to Transparency International.
"Important parts of the economy are dominated by local businessmen who have benefited from their political connections. Breaking up monopolies, preventing corporate raiding and drawing a firmer line between politics and business will be a key challenge for the new government," EBRD's Steves said.
Creating a more transparent business environment will also ensure bigger tax revenues, Vitu said, money the new government desperately needs to recover from Moldova's worst economic crisis since it gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Setting up a business locally or working in low-skilled jobs abroad are often the only options for the droves of Moldovans unable to find work or struggling to live off meagre salaries.
"The middle class is revolting, it is disenchanted because it does not have the right to economic activities and that's because of poor law enforcement, because of corruption and nepotism," analyst Gevorgyan said.
Lastly, corruption has consistently affected the flow of much-needed foreign aid money to Moldova.
In 1999 an investigation by Moldova's Court of Accounts found that part of a $28.6 million loan from the EBRD for the reconstruction of roads was wasted because of violations and mismanagement by the transport ministry.
Nine years later - despite numerous anti-corruption measures often funded by foreign aid money - nothing seemed to have changed. In December 2008, the World Bank was forced to cancel most of a $16 million loan, aimed at improving Moldova's road network, because the bank's procurement rules had been violated.
Ultimately, to reduce corruption, Moldova’s government will have to change the mentality of its citizens dating back to the Soviet era, observers say.
"You have to steal from the state to take care of your family," one said of the entrenched mindset.
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