KIGALI, Aug 8 (Reuters) - On August 9 Rwandans will decide whether to grant a second seven-year term to President Paul Kagame, a strong-handed former rebel who has masterminded the reconstruction of the central African country since the 1994 genocide.
Here are some questions and answers about the poll.
WHO IS RUNNING?
* Kagame leads the ruling Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front, which swept to power after putting an end to the slaughter of 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu 16 years ago. He took power formally in 2000 after being in charge de facto since 1994, and is widely expected to win a new seven-year term.
* Three parties are fielding candidates to challenge Kagame. His strongest rival is deputy speaker of Parliament Damascene Ntawukuliryayo, who heads the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and launched a universal health scheme during his time as health minister. Senate vice President Prosper Higiro heads the Liberal Party (PL) and Alvera Mukabaramba fronts the smaller Party of Peace and Concord.
* Three other outspoken aspirants were unable to stand after failing to register their parties.
CAN KAGAME BE DEFEATED?
* Probably not. Analysts expect Kagame to win with a landslide majority. He is popular for restoring stability after the genocide, rebuilding institutions, steering donor funds to rural development and overseeing robust economic growth.
* Kagame's Rwandan Patriotic Front are running a $3 million campaign, have a strong local presence and far stronger organizational apparatus than his contenders.
* Critics point to the lack of serious opposition. The three rival parties fielding candidates were part of the RPF coalition in 2003, are seen as uncritical of Kagame's policies and offer very little alternative, analysts say.
WHY IS THE ELECTION IMPORTANT OUTSIDE RWANDA?
* Despite being landlocked and resource-poor, Rwanda is seen as a rising star on the continent for donors and investors. Kagame is feted as a visionary leader and African icon.
* Although Rwandans, diplomats and analysts all say the result is a foregone conclusion, critics say the run-up to elections have been marred by political repression. Damage to Kagame's reputation could draw long-term investment risk.
* Rwanda is a strategic player in the fertile mineral-rich eastern borderlands of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Any falling out amongst Kagame's ruling elite would further threaten the stability of North and South Kivu, which are major exporters of tin, tantalum and tungsten.
WILL IT BE DEMOCRATIC?
* Donors say the introduction of a revised electoral code should ensure that the voting is peaceful and the ballot is technically sound.
* Kagame's opponents have mainly criticised the atmosphere in the pre-election period and the apparent lack of access of some opposition figures to the ballot.
* Hutu opposition figure Victoire Ingabire, who was not able to stand, has called for a boycott. She calls PSD, PL and PPC "satellite" parties of the RPF and their leaders "stooges." They deny this, although they accept that it can be diffiult for them to criticise government policies because they were in a ruling coalition with the RPF for much of the last term.
* Ingabire's United Democratic Forces and two other emerging parties say they have faced threats and intimidation. They blame the government for impeding their registration and excluding them from the vote. Ingabire and another opposition party leader were arrested for allegedly promoting ethnic hatred and running foul of strict anti-genocide legislation.
HOW HAS CAMPAIGNING GONE?
* On paper, the campaigns have been peaceful, orderly and each of the political parties have been given equal access to state media. However, the ruling RPF's financial and administrative muscle far overshadows rival parties.
* Kagame has spent around $3 million on his campaign, drawing tens of thousands of supporters to each rally, completely dwarfing attendance at opposition events.
* At one Liberal Party (PL) rally no more than 100 supporters turned up. One official said the rally had in fact been funded by the RPF. If rally attendance translates into votes, Kagame is assured a victory by a large margin.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
* Analysts expect that most of Rwanda's neighbours and the donor community will be happy enough with a Kagame victory.
* While signs of repression in recent months have spooked rights groups and foreign diplomats, few observers see an alternative to the man who re-established security in 1994, successfully implemented wide-reaching reforms, and spends donor money efficiently and transparently.
* Donors hope Kagame comes good on his promise to gradually democratise the country in legislative elections billed for 2013 and stands down at the end of his term in 2017 in accordance with the constitution.
* In the long term, Rwanda's stability depends heavily on Kagame resolving disaffection within his own supporters' ranks and peacefully handing over the reigns of power in seven years.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
