Sept 28 (Reuters) - North Korea&${esc.hash}39;s ailing leader Kim Jong-il has named his youngest son as a military general, state media said early on Tuesday, in what appeared to be the first stage of a dynastic succession.
State news agency KCNA said Kim had issued a directive bestowing military rank on six people including Jong-un, the leader&${esc.hash}39;s sister Kyong-hui and Choe Ryong-hae, who is considered a loyal aide of Kim and his family. [ID:nTOE68Q070]
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* YOSHITO SENGOKU, JAPAN&${esc.hash}39;S CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY
"We would like to continue to monitor closely whether Kim Jong-un will be appointed to some type of a position at the ruling Workers&${esc.hash}39; Party conference that will begin today.
"In any case, our government would like to continue collecting information on what&${esc.hash}39;s happening inside North Korea, including the succession issues, through exchanges of information with other countries."
* TADASHI KIMIYA, TOKYO UNIVERSITY
"It is a little strange that Kim Jong-un was appointed a general despite the fact that he, unlike Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, has virtually no military experience. This gives out an impression that they are in haste to solidify the succession process while Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s health holds.
"They are pressed for time also because they need to establish a firm ruling system by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung.
"With Kim Jong-un being quite young, it is quite unlikely his reign will be something like Kim Il-sung&${esc.hash}39;s or Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s, which is autocracy by one person. Kim Jong-un&${esc.hash}39;s will be more like a system of collective leadership."
* HAKSOON PAIK, SEJONG INSTITUTE, SEOUL
"Kim Jong-un&${esc.hash}39;s title of general is a prelude to his election to key party positions. If he is elected to the poliltburo, the central committee of the politburo, the party secretariat and to the military committee of the central committee then it is clear he is in the same position as his father, Kim Jong-il, was in 1980 when he became heir apparent.
"For Kim Jong-il handing over power also incurs some lame duck status. If Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s health is good enough he will try to avoid a lame duck status but if his health is not good he will accelerate the succession process."
JAE JEAN SUH, PRESIDENT KOREA INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL UNIFICATION
"It is now clear Kim Jong-un is the heir apparent. But the leadership change will open a Pandora&${esc.hash}39;s box as it will probably be a new starting point for policy when previously policy was about muddling through. Now we will probably see party-based policy making instead of military-based policy making.
"Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s power will be weakened as power will not evolve necessarily solely around him. But there is uncertainty. There will probably be discussion with the party&${esc.hash}39;s politburo who will debate economic policy. North Korea faces economic problems and without a change in &${esc.hash}39;juche&${esc.hash}39; (self reliance) policy it is impossible to predict when the economic situation will improve."
ANDREI LANKOV, KOOKMIN UNIVERSITY, SEOUL
"As expected, the dynastic transition is becoming public. So far, they are following the pattern we saw in the 1970s when Kim Jong-il himself was moving to become the new Dear Leader. The difference is that this time they seem to be in a great hurry.
"It took almost a decade of &${esc.hash}39;unofficial&${esc.hash}39; propaganda before Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s name was first mentioned in an open media, and for his son the process took less than two years. It seems that Kim Jong-il and his entourage are not certain how long the current Dear Leader will stay with us."
MOON HONG-SIK, SOUTH KOREAN INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
"The title of &${esc.hash}39;military general&${esc.hash}39; indicates that he is already of a leader status. This was the first time that Kim Jong-un was publicly revealed through media, and it is an indirect indication that he will be named heir. It means that during the ruling party meeting, an important position will be bestowed on Jong-un.
"Kim Jong-un does not have enough power to lead the country alone yet, and the first thing he will likely do is strengthen his political power."
PARK YOUNG-HO, KOREA INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL UNIFICATION
"Kim Jong-il&${esc.hash}39;s conferral of the military titles to Kim Jong-un and Kim Kyong-hui shows that he is making it official that Jong-un is to be his successor. He is making this clear in North Korea as well as to the rest of the world.
"As of now, it is clear that a smooth transition of power is occurring. Kim Jong-il is ensuring that his son succeeds him. But even so, nobody knows what will happen after the death of Kim Jong-il.
"North Korea is in desperate need of financial support from other countries, so it must cooperate and negotiate to some degree. But it seems unlikely that North Korea will open its borders even after the leadership changes."
DANIEL KLIMAN, CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, WASHINGTON
"His son, young and untested, could face some kind of challenge internally. Kim Jong-un is coming in at a time of confrontation with the United States, while Kim Jong-il at least had an opening to the U.S. when he took power.
"With the transition barely under way, the U.S. should wait and see how things play out."
MARCUS NOLAND, PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, WASHINGTON
"This attests to the centrality of the military in governing North Korea today. The military appointment is even more important today than it was in 1980 when Kim Jong-il got his appointment, because of the centrality of the military. It&${esc.hash}39;s striking that the big announcement coming out of a party conference is not a party position but a military position." (Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Editing by Alex Richardson)
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