By Opheera McDoom and Louis Charbonneau
KHARTOUM, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Sudan has just three months to prepare a referendum in which southerners will decide whether they want to secede from the north and form a separate nation.
The U.N. Security Council visited Sudan last week and urged the north and south to ensure the referendum takes place peacefully, credibly and on time. But years of delays have left the referendum's organising commission with what many call an impossible task.
Here are some possible scenarios.
REFERENDUM DELAYED
Time to organise it is running short, but the south's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) insists the referendum on the future of Africa's largest country must be held on the agreed date -- Jan. 9, 2011. Most analysts agree the south will vote for secession and emotions are running high in the semi-autonomous oil-producing region.
The SPLM says the northern National Congress Party (NCP) has stalled on the vote ever since it was enshrined in the 2005 peace deal that ended the long north-south war.
The SPLM believes it would be political suicide to agree to a delay and says a delay could provoke violent demonstrations by southerners which it may not be able to control.
If a delay is necessary, an announcement a week or two before the vote, citing logistical problems, would be more acceptable than announcing a delay now. Any delay must not be more than a few weeks, to appease southerners bent on the self-determination they have fought for since 1955.
Several Security Council ambassadors told Reuters privately a "technical delay" of several weeks or months might be the best way to ensure the vote is credible. The southern government would need to assure southerners the delay was not due to political intrigue by Khartoum.
NO REFERENDUM
This is the worst possible outcome but still a possibility as the referendum commission formed in June has had less than six months to plan the vote.
Voter registration begins next month, and diplomats and analysts say this leaves too little time to organize the vote.
The SPLM has lready said that if the referendum does not take place, the 2005 accord gives it other ways of expressing its right to self-determination.
SOUTH-ONLY REFERENDUM
It has also said the south's parliament could take over the referendum in the south or vote itself on whether to secede.
Southern Sudanese President Salva Kiir told the Security Council last week that the south might need to hold its own referendum. The envoys did not reject the idea but made clear they do not want a unilateral declaration of independence by the south. Kiir promised them that would not happen.
The success of a referendum held by the south would depend largely on whether the international community accepts it, given the number of complaints of intimidation and fraud in the south during elections in April.
The north would also have to recognize it because 98 percent of the south's budget depends on oil revenues sent from Khartoum. Much of Sudan's 6 billion barrels of crude reserves lie south of the border but the oil distribution network is in the north, which makes the two parts of the country economically interdependent.
If the north does not recognize a vote to separate, it could turn off the oil taps which would create an immediate disaster for the landlocked south.
PARTIAL VOTE
Millions of southern Sudanese living in the north or abroad should qualify to vote. But a shortage of time and a lack of any clear method to determine whether these members of the diaspora qualify as southerners means the plebiscite may happen only in the south. That could alienate the north, which feels many southerners living in Khartoum may vote for unity.
The south has at least 8 million residents who are expected to favour secession, far more than the number of southerners living elsewhere. It will be hard to argue that the result of a vote held solely in the south should not be accepted.
The southern referendum is meant to take place at the same time as a plebiscite in the disputed oil-producing Abyei region on whether it should join the north or south. But a deadlock over the composition of that referendum's electoral commission means it is unlikely to happen on time, if at all.
VOTER FRAUD
U.N. officials say that they expect some irregularities in both referendums. They also say that since the southern independence vote is expected to be overwhelmingly in favour of secession, it would be extremely difficult to rig the plebiscite so that the opposite result -- unity -- is achieved.
RETURN TO VIOLENCE?
While there is a wall of mistrust separating the NCP and SPLM after years of bickering over implementation of the 2005 accord, it is not in the economic interests of either side to return to conflict.
But there are many subjects of dispute surrounding the referendum which could lead to violence and analysts say both sides' armies have been re-arming in the build-up to the vote.
The referendum is highly emotional for both northerners and southerners and the lack of clarity on the status of citizenship, wealth sharing, the north-south border and the oil areas are all potential flashpoints.
If the two parties cannot resolve these disputes they could provoke clashes between local communities. These could drag north and south back to war again disrupt surrounding countries.
The north and south have recently accused each other of amassing troops on the border to prepare for war.
Kiir asked the U.N. Security Council last week to deploy peacekeepers along the north-south border before the referendum and to create a buffer zone between the two regions. Council diplomats said it was not a formal proposal but they were considering the idea.
REFERENDUM GOES AHEAD
In Sudan politicians seem to favour brinkmanship and often leave things to the last minute. Neither side wants to return to war. The two parties may be delaying decisions until the last miknute to avoid a return to conflict. The same may be true of the current logistical stumbling blocks.
The NCP is likely to realise it cannot stop the vote and will let it take place to avoid violent protests from southerners which could drag the two sides back to war.
Many observers see the most likely outcome as a last minute scramble to hold a hasty and not entirely credible referendum only in the south in January, which all will have to recognize because there will be little other choice.
That vote is likely to favour secession and Sudan then enters a six-month transition period until July 9, 2011 to make arrangements to create two new countries. (Editing by Tim Pearce)
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