BOGOTA (AlertNet) - A political deadlock between developing and industrialised nations over obligations to reduce carbon emissions has lowered expectations for progress on a new global deal at this year's U.N. climate change conference in Mexico, experts say.
Emissions from the world's leading emerging economies, including China, India and Brazil, have surged in recent years.
Developing nations will account for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. China already emits more carbon than the United States and Canada combined.
"The stumbling block in negotiations is a fundamental political impasse that we have seen repeated in (October's climate talks in) China and will continue on the way to Cancun. There's complete paralysis," Rob Fowler, law professor at the University of South Australia and head of the Ottawa-based Academy of Environmental Law, told AlertNet at a conference on climate change in Bogotá earlier this month.
The U.N. gathering in the Mexican seaside resort of Cancun, from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, is "unlikely to produce any significant breakthrough or binding agreements", he said.
As carbon emissions from developing countries are projected to increase at a rapid rate, many industrialised nations believe developing countries should step up their commitments to curb emissions and agree to binding targets.
But many emerging economies believe industrialised nations should foot the bill in mitigating the effects of global warming and set an example by significantly reducing their carbon emissions.
BINDING COMMITMENTS ELUSIVE
A key U.N. meeting of environment ministers in Bali in 2007 produced a non-binding action plan to mitigate the effects of climate change. But experts argue it is already outdated.
"The Bali Road Map objectives are no longer sufficient for developed countries due to increasing levels of emissions from developing countries," said Fowler.
"Developed countries want binding and verifiable commitments (to curb emissions) from major emerging economies China and Brazil."
Unless Beijing and Washington agree to binding emissions targets, effective action is unlikely, analysts say. But with the U.S. Republican Party set to gain ground during the congressional mid-term elections, getting climate change bills approved will be even more difficult.
"There's no chance in the short run that any climate change legislation would go through the U.S. Congress with the current political climate because the Republicans are basically saying no to everything," said David Hodas, law professor at Widener University and an expert on environmental law.
Some experts are also warning that negotiators at the Cancun meeting may not finalise the mechanisms and funding needed to run initiatives that offer developing nations financial incentives to preserve forests under the fledgling U.N.-backed Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) programme.
"REDD will be discussed but not defined in Cancun. A protocol still needs to be put in place for REDD programmes. It comes down to a matter of cost in reaching agreements like these," said Juan Manuel Soto, head of Green Action in Colombia, a global non-governmental organisation that campaigns to reduce deforestation.
He added that for REDD schemes to expand, they need to attract private investors who see protecting forests as a "business opportunity".
TIME FOR A RETHINK?
Some experts are calling for a fresh approach to the climate change talks, saying the focus should be on working towards a global plan that sets out a rapid transition from carbon-dependent economies to systems that use renewable sources of energy like wind and solar.
"We need a radical rethink on a global scale. The transition to low-carbon economies is the solution. We need to focus on decarbonisation, to eliminate the reliance on carbon-based fossils fuels as a source of energy," said Fowler.
Over a quarter of the world's energy needs are met by burning coal. Measures that could reduce the world's dependency on polluting and finite sources of power like coal and oil include raising taxes on and eliminating subsidies for fossils fuels; providing tax breaks and other financial incentives for companies and governments to switch to wind and solar energy; and setting up new global funds and mechanisms to enable the transfer of money and green technology from rich nations to developing countries.
Research by German and Australian scientists shows the technology exists to harness solar and wind power from Texas to the deserts of North Africa and Colombia, according to Fowler. But getting countries to switch to renewable energy is proving difficult.
"Many governments are firmly committed to the idea that economic growth is based on fossils fuels. Their entrenched interests in propping up fossil fuels and the shear wealth and power of the carbon lobby should not be underestimated," Fowler said, adding that renewable energy is still far too expensive for most developing nations to pursue.
Yet there are positive signs countries will increasingly turn to wind and solar power to meet their energy needs in the future.
Since 2005, global investment in clean energy has risen by 230 percent. According to the U.N. Environment Programme, it amounted to $162 billion last year, with China overtaking the United States to become the world's largest investor in clean energy.
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