By Opheera McDoom and Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Sudan's defence minister said on Tuesday that a referendum on independence for the country's oil-producing south may have to be delayed -- the strongest sign yet that the government might seek a postponement of the vote.
The comments by Abdel Rahim Hussein will stoke tensions with the south which has so far refused to consider changing a Jan. 9 deadline for the referendum.
The public airing of the issue will also reignite a debate over whether Sudan has run out of time to hold its nation-changing vote as scheduled. There are already fears that a disruption of the vote could lead to a new conflict between the north and south.
Here are some possible scenarios.
REFERENDUM DELAYED
Sudan is now less than three months away from the deadline, set out in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of north-south civil war.
The tight timetable -- and the fact that northerners and southerners have still not settled a list of bitter disputes about the vote -- suggest a delay is becoming more likely.
The south's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) insists the referendum be held on the agreed date.
There are clear reasons for the party to stick to its guns, for now at least -- primarily to placate its impatient southern supporters, who are widely expected to vote for separation. The party is also deeply distrustful of the north, saying Khartoum wants to delay the vote to keep control of southern oil.
But at some point the sheer size of the logistical challenges facing the organisers are likely to hit home. The deputy head of the organising referendum commission -- himself a southerner -- has already hinted the region might accept a last minute hold-up if there were clear signs that plans for the referendum were progressing and registration cards were already in voters' hands.
People from the disputed oil-producing Abyei region were promised a simultaneous plebiscite on whether to join the north or south, but preparations for that vote are deadlocked.
Senior northern politicians have already warned it is impossible to hold the Abyei vote on time and said they are open to a delay, or an outright settlement without a vote.
SOUTHERN-RUN VOTE
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir told visiting Security Council envoys this month the south might resort to holding its own referendum, without the approval of the north, if northern leaders tried to disrupt the vote.
The U.N. ambassadors did not reject the idea but made it clear they do not want a unilateral declaration of independence by the south. Kiir promised them that would not happen.
The success of a referendum held by the south on its own would depend largely on whether the international community accepts it.
The north would also have to come round to accepting the arrangement. All of the oil found in the south currently passes through the north's pipelines and port to get to market. In the worst case scenario, if the north refused to recognise an independent vote, it could turn off the oil taps which would create an immediate disaster for the landlocked south.
The SPLM has also said the southern parliament could vote on the future of the region, if no plebiscite looked likely to happen, which would infuriate the north.
VOTE NOT CREDIBLE
The north could jump on irregularities in the referendums to question their credibility. These could range from a repeat of the voter intimidation and fraud recorded in April national elections to problems in registering millions of southerners in the north and the diaspora.
Strict timetables set out in the laws guiding the referendums have been already been thrown out the window. Unless those laws are amended, the results could be legally challenged by the north.
RETURN TO VIOLENCE?
It is not in the economic interests of either side to return to conflict.
But the referendums are highly emotional for both northerners and southerners and the lack of clarity on the status of citizenship, wealth sharing, the north-south border and the oil areas are all potential flashpoints.
If the two parties cannot resolve these disputes they could provoke clashes between local communities. These could drag north and south back to war again disrupt surrounding countries.
The north and south have recently accused each other of amassing troops on the border to prepare for war.
Kiir asked the U.N. Security Council this month to deploy peacekeepers along the north-south border before the referendum and to create a buffer zone between the two regions.
REFERENDUM GOES AHEAD ON TIME
Sudanese politicians often use brinkmanship to get an edge in negotiations and leave crucial decisions to the last minute.
It is perfectly possible that both sides will settle their differences just in time for the Jan. 9 vote and go on to accept the results of two rushed and imperfect plebiscites -- if only to avoid a return to war and keep the oil flowing. After the expected vote for independence, Sudan would then enter a six-month transition period until July 9, 2011 to prepare for the official creation of two new countries. (Additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau; editing by Noah Barkin)
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