By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Sudan's president risks losing power and prestige as well as oil if the south secedes in a looming referendum, considerations that may still tempt him and his allies to delay or disrupt the historic vote.
People from Sudan's oil-producing south are widely expected to choose independence in the referendum, promised to them in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of war with the north and scheduled to take place on Jan. 9.
President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his ruling northern National Congress Party (NCP) have been giving mixed signals about how they will behave in the last month before the vote.
"There is a dual track that the NCP is taking," said International Crisis Group analyst Fouad Hikmat.
"To the international community, the media and everyone, they say the referendum will happen on time and they are going to accept the results ... The second track is the real issue ... They need extra time to address their own political and economic vulnerabilities and vulnerabilities inside the NCP."
Over the weekend a civic group -- which the south claims is a front for the NCP -- said it was preparing a legal challenge to halt registration for the vote, alleging irregularities.
"I do not think the registration will be accepted," said senior NCP member Rabie Abdelati, while denying any link to the challenge.
NCP figures have accused southern leaders of trying to rig a vote for separation and threatened not to recognise the result.
The south has accused the north of trying to provoke an attack by bombing inside its territory, while the north has accused the south of "declaring war" by harbouring Darfur rebels.
"It is clear that the NCP is implementing a plan to take Sudan back to war so as to avoid the implementation ... of the referendum," the south's minister for peace, Pagan Amum, told reporters on Tuesday.
Diplomats hope it is all a classic piece of brinkmanship, ramping up the pressure to get more concessions on the sharing of oil revenues, the lifeblood for both north and south economies.
But the stakes could not be higher. A forced delay of the vote would spark fury in the south and could reignite conflict that would also end up disrupting Sudan's oil production.
POLITICAL SURVIVAL
The only factors that would trump those issues in the minds of Bashir and the NCP elite would be if the separation of the south becomes a question of their own political survival.
Bashir's -- and by extension, the NCP's -- prestige inside the country would take a pounding if the south split away.
"He would be remembered as the leader who let half of the country go," said one diplomatic source.
If Bashir grants secession to the former rebels in the south, he could soon face intensified challenges from insurgents in the west (Darfur), east and north/south border areas.
"We think that the north will become weaker (after separation)," said Al-Tahir al-Feki, a senior member of Darfur's rebel Justice and Equality Movement.
The north's opposition parties are divided and weak and were crushed in April elections. But weak parties and rebel groups have quickly become strong in the past with the clandestine support of Sudan's neighbours, including Libya, Eritrea and Chad, keen to exploit any signs of weakness in Khartoum.
"Regionally it (southern secession) could send a signal that the north was not as strong as it used to be," said another diplomatic official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The north also desperately needs extra time to diversify its economy away from oil, build up foreign currency reserves and stave off inflation. Many of Sudan's regime changes have been preceded by public unrest over rising food prices.
One big counter-balance to the risks to the regime from inside Sudan is a package of incentives from outside Africa.
Washington has offered to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and to help ease sanctions in exchange for a resolution of the Darfur conflict and a peaceful referendum.
But many in Khartoum doubt whether U.S. President Barack Obama will be able or willing to follow through on all of those promises after separation, particularly given Bashir's continued status as a wanted war crimes suspect.
Arrest warrants issued against Bashir by the International Criminal Court over charges of atrocities in Darfur have already deepened his international isolation and curtailed his travel.
In one startling challenge to the president, influential Islamist Al-Tayyib Zayn-al-Abdin wrote an article on Sunday suggesting Bashir should step down to rescue Sudan from the isolation that he said would only worsen after secession.
"After this (separation) happens," he wrote, "there will be nothing that the West wants from Sudan to treat it kindly." (Editing by Giles Elgood)
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