* Deep division among U.S. agencies
* 'Lot of skepticism' about Afghan strategy
By Mark Hosenball
WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies are lining up against the Pentagon in the debate over Afghanistan strategy, arguing that the prospect for success in the war is questionable despite recent military gains.
Experts within the U.S. government, including officials familiar with advice the White House is receiving, say recent progress is undermined by a weak and corrupt Afghan government and Pakistan's reluctance to crack down on militants hiding on its side of the border.
"There is a lot of skepticism within the administration about whether the strategy is working," including among intelligence and some White House officials, said Caroline Wadhams, South Asia expert at the Center for American Progress, a think tank close to the White House.
The White House will release some conclusions from its review of U.S. operations in Afghanistan on Thursday and national security officials say President Barack Obama is likely to announce little change in strategy.
He will assert progress is being made but huge challenges remain, officials say.
Behind that, there is deep division among the agencies advising Obama, according to U.S. officials.
Pentagon leaders say they believe the counterinsurgency policy, crafted and directed by General David Petraeus, has made progress in clearing Taliban fighters out of parts of Afghanistan and then holding that territory.
A principal objective of the strategy is to expand those areas until they overlap, creating a swath of insurgent-free territory that U.S. forces can hand to Afghan authorities.
But U.S. spy agencies gave the White House a more pessimistic assessment of the counterinsurgency strategy. According to two U.S. officials, pessimism about U.S. prospects is reflected in two National Intelligence Estimates, one about Afghanistan and the other about Pakistan.
Those reports were submitted to the White House as the U.S. intelligence agencies' contribution to the policy review.
STRONGER ACTION SAID NEEDED FROM PAKISTAN
The officials said the estimates, first reported by The New York Times, represented a differing assessment from military leaders about the likelihood of significant progress in Afghanistan before next July, when Obama says he plans to start winding down U.S. operations there.
Most notable among the intelligence agencies' concerns, the officials told Reuters, is their assessment that long-term progress in Afghanistan will be very difficult until Pakistan takes stronger action against militants in the border area.
The CIA has been conducting an extensive secret campaign using drone aircraft to kill al Qaeda and other militants in Pakistan. But some U.S. officials say that if anything, efforts by Pakistan's own intelligence and military services to root out militants from their sanctuaries have lately been less, rather than more, vigorous.
"There's broad agreement among senior policymakers that CIA operations are doing major damage to terrorists," said one U.S. official, who added the United States "simply can't afford to curtail" the drone campaign.
The official added, "The Pakistanis, for their part, could step up to the plate a bit more if for no other reason than it's in their own self-interest. After all, they've been brutally targeted by very bad actors who live on Pakistani soil."
There is a growing belief within Congress that current war policy is in serious jeopardy due to alleged Pakistani recalcitrance and Afghan corruption, according to congressional aides who said those problems were leading prominent lawmakers to conclude privately the United States should extricate its forces sooner rather than later.
So far, few if any congressional leaders are willing to voice these sentiments publicly. (Additional reporting by Missy Ryan in Washington; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
