* First acknowledgement from north elite of likely split
* Nafie says southern secession now "expected"
KHARTOUM, Dec 16 (Reuters) - An aide to Sudan's president on Thursday said efforts to keep the country united had failed, in the first acknowledgement from the northern elite that the south would likely secede after a looming referendum.
Presidential assistant Nafie Ali Nafie, seen as a hardline supporter of unity, said it was now "expected" that people from the oil-producing south would choose to declare independence in the Jan. 9 vote, the state Suna news agency reported.
The announcement could mark a change in direction in the north. President Omar Hassan al-Bashir previously said he would campaign up to the last moment for unity and members of his party have threatened not to recognise the result of the vote.
"Dr Nafie Ali Nafie has acknowledged the failure of all the efforts to maintain the unity of Sudan," Suna said, reporting on a speech by the aide in Khartoum.
Nafie, one of the most powerful men in Sudan, said he had been campaigning to keep north and south together, "but we shall accept the reality and must not deceive ourselves and stick to dreams", Suna quoted him as saying.
"Dr. Nafie said that the separation of south Sudan has become something expected because it is the orientation of Sudan People's Liberation Movement (the south's dominant party, the SPLM), which is backed by the West."
The south is now just 24 days away from the scheduled Jan. 9 start of voting in the plebiscite it secured in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of war with the north.
Analysts have long predicted southerners would choose to split away from their former civil war foes to form Africa's newest state.
Southern leaders have accused president Omar Hassan al- Bashir and his ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of plotting to disrupt the vote to keep control of the region's oil.
Both sides have spent months in negotiations over how they would share oil revenues after the split, among other issues, with little public sign of progress.
There have been fears protracted rows over the ownership of contested oil regions and the position of their shared border could reignite conflict. (Reporting by Andrew Heavens, Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
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