By Opheera McDoom
KHARTOUM, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir is the only sitting head of state wanted for war crimes and genocide by the International Criminal Court.
Yet, he has shown his conciliatory face to the world as the south of his country votes in a referendum on secession which most expect will deprive him of oil, domestic prestige and a quarter of Sudan's most fertile land. The vote was guaranteed by a 2005 north-south peace deal which ended decades of civil war.
Here are some questions and answers explaining Bashir's softer rhetoric.
WHY GO TO JUBA?
Bashir visited the southern capital Juba on the eve of the vote offering a hand of peace to southerners.
Bashir rarely travels to Juba, the stronghold of the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) which now rules a semi-autonomous authority there.
In doing so he rid the southerners of their suspicions that he might renege on the 2005 peace deal given months of aggressive rhetoric from northern officials.
He also showed dissenters in his own party who wanted to disrupt the vote firmly where he stood.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said the move showed Bashir had accepted the fact of secession and that he had no intention of returning to war with the south.
WHY SEEK RECONCILIATION WITH SOUTH NOW?
With state coffers running dry, Bashir cannot afford another war so he seems to have decided to embrace the inevitable split gracefully to make the best of a bad situation.
Sudan entered into a major economic crisis ahead of the vote after years of government over-spending, rising debt and a massive trade deficit finally caught up with Khartoum.
Banks had no foreign currency, inflation soared and the Sudanese pound has been temporarily devalued. Many imports have been banned and the government slapped restrictions on taking hard cash out of the country.
IS THERE AN INTERNATIONAL ROLE?
Carter said Bashir had told him the north would keep all of Sudan's debilitating external debt of around $40 billion if the south separates.
Bashir's comments, if confirmed, show that the economic incentives offered by Western nations to recognise the referendum are working.
Washington, Norway and Britain -- the three most influential nations who guaranteed the north-south deal -- have all offered help in improving trade and with securing debt relief if the north allowed the plebiscite to take place.
The SPLM has said it will use its good relations with Paris Club members to help secure debt relief for Khartoum.
External debt has mounted to an estimated $40 billion and prevents the north from receiving concessional loans it badly needs as investors shy away because of the impending split.
Washington has also offered to remove Sudan from its list of states that sponsor terror. This will not help lift U.S. trade sanctions imposed since 1997 but will help to remove the stigma of working in Sudan for non-American companies.
Bashir's arrest warrant cannot be retracted. But after a series of snubs from allies who have refused to host him under pressure from European ICC supporters, he realises how isolated he has become. The U.N. Security Council has the power to suspend the warrant for a year -- potentially another incentive.
IS IT FOR REAL?
Critics say Bashir plays the statesman role to the outside world but for his domestic audience retains his hard-line attitude. Recent comments on widening Islamic sharia law in a post-secession north reflect that.
Most northerners prefer unity but accept that the south will chose to secede. Bashir will silence critics in the northern opposition with his conciliatory approach.
But he could lose some support within his party from a hard-line minority who do not want to let the south go at any cost. However, analysts believe the majority of Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) realise disrupting the vote will mean a war -- an option they cannot afford.
While he might show his nice face to the south as it becomes a new neighbouring state which the north will depend on economically, the people of Darfur -- where a low-level insurgency continues -- may bear the brunt of his anger.
Khartoum withdrew from Darfur peace talks and has begun fighting the only rebel group it signed a peace deal with.
Having given in on the south's demands for autonomy which led to secession, he will be unlikely to allow Darfur's insurgents the same concessions. (Editing by Maria Golovnina)
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