* Current security situation means more than 400,000 needed
* Army on track to hit recruitment targets for 2011
By Jonathon Burch
KABUL, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Afghanistan's security forces will likely need to be bigger than a projected 400,000 soldiers and police if they are to take over securing the country from foreign troops in 2014, the Afghan Defence Ministry said on Thursday.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants Afghans to take the lead in security by the end of 2014, an ambitious goal but one endorsed by Western nations with troops on the ground.
Commanders have estimated that a 400,000-strong security force -- combining military and police -- would be the minimum requirement to protect the whole country and international donors have tentative plans to reach that level by 2013.
There is a firm commitment to have a 300,000-strong force by October 2011, shortly after the U.S. begins a slow withdrawal.
But Afghan Defence Ministry spokesman General Zaher Azimy said on Thursday even the larger number may not be high enough.
"It cannot be predicted what the security situation will be like in 2014," Azimy said in a written statement.
"But considering the current security situation ... Afghanistan will need a security force numbering more than 400,000 to transition power in 2014."
Violence in Afghanistan is at its worst since the war began in late 2001. A strategy review released by U.S. President Barack Obama last month found NATO-led forces were making headway against the Taliban but serious challenges remained.
The review also said the United States was on track to begin gradually withdrawing its troops -- numbering about 97,000 out of some 150,000 foreign troops -- in July, as Afghan forces slowly take over in some parts of the country.
Azimy said there were currently around 149,500 soldiers in the Afghan army and that they were on track to expand to the 171,600 target this year. The Afghan army numbered 97,000 soldiers in November 2009, according to NATO figures.
Afghanistan's police force, which is controlled by the Interior Ministry, numbered about 120,000 in November 2010, up from 95,000 a year earlier.
Plans for 2013 call for 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police.
TOO AMBITIOUS?
Critics, however, point to shortcomings in Afghanistan's security forces and say the 2014 target to begin withdrawing troops is too ambitious and only emboldens the insurgents.
The army and police force have suffered from high attrition rates, mainly from desertion and casualties.
The commander in charge of training, Lieutenant General William Caldwell, said in September attrition rates were so high that in order to achieve a permanent increase of 50,000, the security forces would need to recruit 133,000 personnel.
Some also say too much focus has been placed on quantity over quality, and while the army in particular has made strides in recent months, its operational capability has been overstated.
Violence has surged in Afghanistan with record casualties on all sides. Afghan security forces have been hit particularly hard as they are often easier targets than their foreign partners who are protected by more advanced equipment.
On a visit to Afghanistan this week, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said he hoped Afghans would be able to ensure security by the end of 2014 but that the United States would remain beyond that date if the Afghans wanted.
The Pentagon also said last week the United States would temporarily send 1,400 more Marines to Afghanistan in an effort to hold on to fragile gains, but overall U.S. troop levels would not surpass previously announced limits. (Editing by Emma Graham-Harrison) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/afghanistanpakistan) (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to newsfeedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
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