* Shock waves may rattle region's entrenched governments
* Arabs share same grumbles over prices, jobs as Tunisians
* Satellite TV, Internet highlight events across region
By Edmund Blair
CAIRO, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The ousting of Tunisia's president after widespread protests will embolden Arab opposition movements and ordinary people to challenge more vigorously entrenched governments across the Middle East.
In a region where power usually changes hands in carefully orchestrated transitions -- and in several cases has not shifted for decades -- the speed at which Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was pushed from office has sent shock waves.
Other Arab states may have more effective security forces or deeper pockets to respond to grumbling populations. They may also lack the feisty unions that sustained Tunisia's protests.
But across the region public frustrations are the same as those that drove Tunisians to the street: soaring prices, not enough jobs and systems of government that offer no real democratic accountability.
"The revolt in Tunisia is a surprise on all levels. It shows nations can topple oppressive regimes. There will be a ripple effect across the Arab region," said Abdelrahman Mansour, a 23-year-old Egyptian political activist.
Satellite channels like Al Jazeera, Facebook and Twitter mean Arabs around the region are watching Tunisia's transformation live, and sharing ideas at the tap of a keyboard, which may inspire others to take up the gauntlet.
"The coverage of the fast-moving developments and the overthrow of the Ben Ali regime on Al Jazeera television brings this process into the living rooms of hundreds of millions of Arabs," wrote Rami G. Khouri, a Beirut-based analyst, in an article published on syndication agency Agence Global.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For more Tunisia stories, click [ID:nLDE70A15X]
Instant view from analysts [ID:nLDE70E01R]
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
'WRITING ON THE WALL'
Among the states analysts suggest may be flashpoints are Egypt, Jordan, Syria and other North African countries. Popular frustrations extend to the Gulf, but these oil-producing states with vast financial reserves have a welfare system in place to buy off the opposition.
When or whether other Arab states will reach a tipping point is far from clear. But analysts said Tunisia's experience shows momentum can gather quickly even in a state with notoriously tight security that had till now effectively smothered dissent.
"The old methods of oppressing people are ending. The writing is on the wall, either you open up or you implode," said a prominent Jordanian politician, who asked not to be named.
Hamdy Hassan, spokesman for the Egypt's opposition Muslim Brotherhood, said Tunisia was "a bad omen for other leaders. I think each one now is either preparing his plane or his accounts, and is preparing also a tighter security grip than what is present to try and protect his position."
But other states have so far averted a Tunisian-style spiral, like Algeria which faced down its own protests.
Despite rising pressure, few see Arab governments falling like dominos as communist regimes did after the Berlin wall fell.
Jordan, stung by its own protests, has responded like others in the region by announcing a package to help cut prices of fuel and staple products. Libya and Morocco have taken similar steps.
In Syria, the government has been phasing out some subsidies since 2008 and relies on ubiquitous security services to keep control. But analysts point to rising discontent in the drought-stricken east, the centre of Syria's oil industry.
"The Syrian authorities realise that the east poses a problem to the system," one Arab official said.
RISING PRESSURE
Officials in Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, have reassured Egyptians about adequate stocks to guarantee supplies of subsidised bread. Shortages in 2008 sparked protests, quelled at the time by tough security forces and vows of better wages.
But such largesse is an increasing challenge, particularly for non-oil producers struggling to cut burgeoning deficits after being hit by the world financial crisis.
UAE-based Saudi liberal Mansour Nogaidan said: "It's historic. No one could have imagined this a few months ago. With the economic crises in the Arab countries we could see a repeat of what happened in Tunisia, but I'm sceptical."
Analysts said Syria and Jordan, for example, had military forces that might be more ready than Tunisia's to smash dissent. A Libyan analyst said leader Muammar Gaddafi, in power for more than 40 years, had tribal alliances to help secure his rule and a scattered population so protests could more easily be crushed.
Ahmed el-Naggar, an economic analyst at Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said prices in Egypt were rising faster than Tunisia and the average Egyptian earned less but noted protests rarely gathered more than a few hundred. In part, he said Egypt had critical independent newspapers and other safety valves, unlike Tunisia, that helped contain opposition to the government of President Hosni Mubarak, 82, who has been in power for three decades.
"But if outstanding issues of the minimum wage and rising prices, constitutional amendments and presidential succession are not addressed and resolved, tension levels will keep rising until society explodes," he said.
Hossam Hamalawy, a political activist who writes the arabawy.org blog, noted that Egyptian workers were starting to mobilise more effectively against the state, filling a gap left by Egypt's fragile and ineffective political opposition parties.
He said Egypt's military and security forces, whose rank and file are mainly made up of poor conscripts, may also balk if called to bloodily suppress protests on the scale of Tunisia.
"If an uprising takes place, and the army gets sent in, I expect a disaster for the regime not for the people," he said. (Additional reporting by Alexander Dziadosz, Shaimaa Fayed and Marwa Awad in Cairo, William Maclean in London, Suleiman Khalidi in Amman, Andrew Hammond in Dubai, and other Reuters correspondents; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
