KABUL, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Afghanistan inaugurates parliament on Wednesday more than four months since a fraud-riddled election, after a last-minute resolution to a days-long standoff between President Hamid Karzai and the new assembly members.
Here are some scenarios of the role parliament might play once its members have taken their seats:
A WEAKENED PARLIAMENT:
Karzai had tried to postpone the inauguration of parliament by one month to give a special court he established more time to investigate complaints from the Sept. 18 vote. He has not publicly condemned the results but is believed to be unhappy with them.
After furious members threatened to take their seats with or without him, and foreign donors expressed "deep concern", Karzai backed down, agreeing to a Wednesday inauguration.
But the special court is still in operation and could potentially incriminate dozens of assembly members. In an election marred by widespread fraud, few have escaped without allegations against them, whether true or false.
Karzai wants any found guilty disqualified from parliament. Lawmakers say the tribunal is illegal and they have pledged to challenge its existence and any rulings it makes.
But until the issue is resolved, the court will hang like an axe over their heads, perhaps encouraging some to sit quiet rather than take on a president widely believed to have influence over the court he set up.
There is also a sense of disenfranchisement in many of the most violent areas -- disproportionately ethnic Pashtun -- where voting was impossible.
This could undermine parliament's authority and also play into the hands of an insurgency growing in strength and scope.
BUSINESS AS USUAL
In its previous incarnation, parliament was largely ignored by Karzai until it confronted him near the end of its term, blocking a swathe of choices for his new cabinet.
Parliament brings considerable benefits of patronage, so some members prefer to focus on earning back money spent on their campaigns rather than day-to-day government.
There are no parties in parliament, in part because of the voting system which does not leave room for people to stand as party candidates, so it is hard to form cohesive opposition groups. The effectiveness of ad-hoc efforts is limited.
Because members represent a province as a group -- rather than individually answering to a particular constituency -- it is hard for ordinary citizens to seek individual MPs out for help or call them to account.
And although the president seems unsatisfied with its makeup, analysts say the assembly lost some of its more vocal and engaged members in the latest election.
Observers warn that if the parliament remains ineffective, it will exacerbate a growing sense of apathy among Afghans and stymie efforts to encourage them to see democracy as a right which brings benefits, and government as accountable.
Many have come to see elections as merely a way for warlords or the massively corrupt to gain a seal of legitimacy.
PARLIAMENT CHALLENGES KARZAI:
The election, despite violence, intimidation and widespread fraud, has yielded a larger, more vocal and coherent opposition bloc than the previous poll, even if it is far from a majority.
Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's main rival in a 2009 presidential election, says he commands the support of more than 90 opposition members in the new parliament, potentially enough to provide a real counterweight to Karzai's power.
The Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic bloc and from which Karzai draws much of his support, have also lost ground.
Even before taking their seats, the country's new members of parliament have challenged the president, and forced him to back down over his plan to postpone the inauguration.
The West would welcome a more robust parliament that can act as a balance to Karzai, who has proved a difficult partner for the nations that support Afghanistan with troops and cash.
They offered carefully worded but firm support for the assembly members in the recent showdown and might be willing to provide behind-the-scenes support for them in future.
But they are also aware that many of those who made it into parliament are seen as tainted by the nature of the poll.
And although it is hard to predict how Karzai, an agile politician, would respond to concerted and consistent efforts to hold him to account, it seems unlikely he wouldn't fight them. (Writing by Matt Robinson; Editing by Emma Graham-Harrison and Robert Birsel) (If you have a query or comment about this story, send an e-mail to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
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