Jan 31 (Reuters) - Protesters intensified their campaign on Monday to force Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to quit as world leaders struggled to find a solution to a crisis that has torn up the Middle East political map. [ID:nLDE70U00B]
Following are analysts' comments:
ZAINEB Al-ASSAM, HEAD OF MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA FORECASTING, EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS
"The most likely scenario in the next seven days will be an escalation in protests, with a million strong protest planned for 1 February. If Mubarak appears to be staying then protests will continue after then, also initiated by a lack of basic foodstuffs such as flour.
"In the event of Mubarak's resignation, the Muslim Brotherhood are well organised and would do well in any open electoral process. While the more moderate political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood will contain the more extreme elements in the group, they are close to Hamas and so increased war risks with Israel and increased terrorism risks in Israel (if border control lapses) are very likely.
In a year, Egypt would likely look more like Turkey and represent a moderately positive investment and risk climate. Even so, many existing contracts will be revised and challenged. There is likely to be some re-nationalisation in the manufacturing and industrial sector.
In terms of contagion risk, Yemen, Sudan, Jordan and Syria all look vulnerable. However, the greatest risk in terms of both probability and severity is in Saudi Arabia. A successor regime in Saudi Arabia would change the commercial as well as geopolitical environment across the region.
(Reporting by Peter Apps)
(Compiled by World Desk +44 207 542 7939)
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