* U.S. wary of unsettling other autocratic allies
* Obama administration caught in a bind
By Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The big test for President Barack Obama in Egypt's crisis is whether he can avoid sparking unintended consequences in the broader Middle East, ranging from destabilizing Saudi Arabia to emboldening Iran to stoking Arab-Israeli tensions.
Even as Washington edges away from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, it is treading cautiously, wary of unsettling other autocratic Arab allies, including rulers in the oil-rich Gulf, who might be nurturing fresh doubts about the U.S. commitment to them.
"The balancing act for the U.S. is to be on the side of change but also to signal friendly leaders that it's not running away from them at the drop of a hat," said Stephen Grand, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution.
Upheaval has already rocked Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Lebanon, and U.S. national security officials acknowledge they are concerned enough to have started "war-gaming" the prospects that unrest could spread to other countries in the region.
Washington's dilemma is to support democratic aspirations in Egypt and across the Arab world while keeping intact alliances it considers crucial to fighting al Qaeda, securing U.S. ally Israel, isolating nuclear Iran and safeguarding American economic interests.
While Obama's administration is forced to reshape a Middle East strategy scrambled by recent events, it is uncertain about what comes next in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Washington's options are limited for influencing events on the ground in Egypt as Mubarak, a longtime ally, is forced to loosen, if not eventually relinquish, his grip after 30 years of authoritarian rule.
U.S. strategy -- stepping up pressure for an orderly transition while not abandoning Mubarak altogether --- appears calibrated to avoid inflaming the situation or sending developments spinning out of control.
President George Bush's administration was criticized for what many saw as an overly hasty push for democratic elections and other reforms through its "freedom agenda."
This was seen as having helped open the way for Hamas Islamists to win a surprise victory in Palestinian elections and the powerful Hezbollah group to gain political clout in Lebanon -- both counter to U.S. interests.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq was also widely seen as fueling anti-American sentiment and Islamic militancy across the region.
UNFORESEEN REPERCUSSIONS?
The Obama administration was caught off-guard when the political ground started shifting in the Middle East in recent weeks.
As turmoil rocks Egypt, the worst-case scenario for U.S. policymakers is a power vacuum in the Arab world's most populous nation filled by Islamic militants more likely to align themselves with Iran than with the West.
Even an Egyptian government less friendly to the United States could cause problems for U.S. efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. Mubarak has long been considered a guardian of Egypt's peace treaty with Israel.
"It's hard to prevent unpredictable repercussions, but the U.S. has to try," said Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
That may explain why Obama is walking a such a fine line.
His telephone call on Saturday to Saudi King Abdullah appeared aimed at least partly to reassure the monarch about U.S. ties with the world's biggest oil-exporting nation.
There is scant reason to believe Saudi Arabia is at risk of the contagion of protests taking root in its tightly controlled society, analysts say.
Though, like Egypt, it also has an aging head of state, deep social problems and a heavily criticized human rights record. The Saudi rulers also have oil wealth that gives them greater leverage with the international community as well as their own people.
But doubts about Obama's commitment to the Gulf oil states could prompt them to be less cooperative with Washington in its efforts to contain Iran and work together on counterterrorism.
The United States has more reason to be concerned about Yemen, a restive country where the authoritarian leader has been an important ally in the fight against al Qaeda.
Yemen has already faced street protests inspired by those in Egypt and Tunisia.
U.S. officials will also likely be keeping an eye on Jordan, the only Arab state other than Egypt to have made formal peace with Israel. There have been calls for Jordan's king to allow broader freedoms, but analysts see far less chance of that mushrooming into full-blown protests.
Questions have also been raised about the futures of autocratic rulers in Libya, Morocco and Syria, but there has been no sign that they face the immediate threat of the kind of unrest that toppled Tunisia's president this month.
U.S. officials have made clear, however, that other Middle Eastern leaders should consider themselves on notice.
"It is vitally important that countries understand the right lessons here and take aggressive steps to promote greater opportunity and to open up political processes," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. (Additional reporting by Mark Hosenball; editing by Christopher Wilson) (matt.spetalnick@reuters.com ; +1 202 898 8300; Reuters Messaging: matt.spetalnick.reuters.com@reuters.net ))
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