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South Sudan: after the party's over

by Katy Migiro | Thomson Reuters Foundation
Wednesday, 2 February 2011 11:19 GMT

* Any views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.

"When the celebrations are over and the hard work begins, are we likely to see a fall out between the government and its people?"

South Sudanese high with elation over their almost unanimous vote in favour of independence have been cheering, dancing and ululating in the southern capital Juba.

Preliminary results at the weekend showed 99 percent of southerners voted for separation in the historic referendum. The final result is due on February 14.

But, like partygoers seeing the creeping dawn, Sudan watchers know the hangover is coming.

“When the celebrations are over and the hard work begins, are we likely to see a fall out between the government and its people?” one analyst said.

The number one fear is that a history of tribal clashes will be repeated. There are worries tensions may flare again if the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups which dominated rebel ranks during the war of liberation against Khartoum, are allowed to dominate political and economic life in the new South Sudan at the expense of minority groups.

The transition to democracy will be one of the biggest tests of the south's government, which is made up of former rebels.

The recent nomination of the committee to review the constitution, which expires on July 9, is causing some concern.

Members were appointed by presidential decree. Only one committee member was from the opposition and none from civil society. Critics argue that process for drawing up the supreme law in the land needs to be inclusive.

There's also been no serious effort to promote the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement’s clauses on healing and reconciliation. Church leaders and academics emphasised the need for confidence building measures, both between the north and the south and among southerners.

Economically, expectations are sky high. Oil accounts for 97 percent the government of South Sudan’s revenue.

While friends of the regime have turned a blind eye to corruption over the last six years, things have to change if South Sudan is to avoid the resource curse that has destroyed so many other African states, experts say.

As a starting point, the new government needs to sign up to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and implement its guidelines. This is something that Khartoum has promised in the past.  

Meanwhile, security is yet another big challenge. The former rebel SPLA has not reformed from a guerrilla movement to a structured army. Soldiers know how to handle a gun but keeping law and order is a different matter. Most of the police are illiterate.

The greatest worry is potential incursions by Uganda's rebel Lord’s Resistance Army, currently camping out in the Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo.

If farmers are unable to plant and harvest in the grain basket border regions, hunger will continue to stalk southerners. 

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