KHARTOUM, Feb 7 (Reuters) - South Sudan has overwhelmingly voted to secede from the north but before it can become the world&${esc.hash}39;s newest state, leaders from both sides must resolve potentially explosive disputes.
Here are some possible scenarios for the coming months until the south can declare its independence expected on July 9.
RECOGNITION
The south has voted 99 percent vote for secession. it will can expect recognition statements from Washington, London and the European Union as well as the African Union. Most important will be the north&${esc.hash}39;s recognition -- which President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has promised to give. The south will now begin work on gaining membership of bodies such as the United Nations and especially the World Bank and IMF to allow it access to concessional funding to build the war-ravaged nation.
SUDAN&${esc.hash}39;S NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
Sudan&${esc.hash}39;s coalition government, formed after a 2005 peace deal with the participation of the south&${esc.hash}39;s ruling party, the Sudan People&${esc.hash}39;s Liberation Movement (SPLM), should hold until July 9.
However SPLM ministers have in the past said they were able to exert little control over policy in the ministries dominated by northern officials from the National Congress Party, and their influence will only become weaker until July 9, giving the NCP an effective free ride in terms of policy making.
Bashir has also said southerners cannot hold government jobs after July 9 and the removal of 22,000 southern soldiers from the northern army must be handled with care and transparency.
Already an army mutiny in Malakal has claimed a 50 lives because southern solders refused to redeploy to the north. [ID:nLDE7150G1]. And no one is able to say what will happen to southerners who opt to keep north Sudanese nationality -- will they enjoy full equality in the north?
The constitution of both north and south must be changed to reflect the new realities but this also gives both dominant parties an opportunity to amend the democratic and inclusive articles guaranteed by the 2005 peace deal. The extent to which opposition parties and civil society are involved in the writing of the new constitutions of both nations will indicate how both states will be ruled post secession - one-party states or multilateral democracies.
DISENTANGLING THE ECONOMIES
Both sides will likely take hard-line positions. The north is in economic crisis with inflation soaring and foreign currency shortages while the south will need as much money as possible to start national reconstruction.
While oil revenue sharing will continue post-secession given much of current production is in the south and the infrastructure in the north, what percentage the north will get will depend on political concessions elsewhere.
The south intends to issue a new currency which, if done in an ordered and coordinated way, can be problem free. However [ID:nMCD351248] if the south does not cooperate fully in returning the Sudanese pound to the north then this could further devastate the pound, already effectively devalued by the central bank [ID:nMCD241466].
Sudan&${esc.hash}39;s debilitating ${esc.dollar}40 billion in external debt is weighing down the north, but the south is unlikely to take on any portion of it which could exclude it from getting concessional loans from the World Bank and IMF. The north insists the debt would be a "joint responsibility" although the south&${esc.hash}39;s liability remains unclear.
Both sides have said they are working with donors to achieve debt forgiveness.
Given the global financial crisis, the international donor community has warned both the south and north that development funds will be limited for either state after the split.
RESOLUTION OF ABYEI
The division of oil revenues and other outstanding post-secession issues will depend on the resolution of a dispute over the ownership the central region of Abyei, claimed by both sides.
It&${esc.hash}39;s clear the region will not have its promised referendum on which nation to join. Its status will be part of a wider package of post-secession arrangements including the disputed border, debt, citizenship and oil.
Observers have urged that Abyei be resolved as soon as possible and before the July 9 deadline as it remains the main flashpoint for violence, with tribes allied to both sides clashing during the January independence vote.
The international community will likely offer further incentives to the NCP to convince its allied nomads, the Misseriya, to accept the region being annexed to the south. The NCP could extract a high price for this of up 40-50 percent of southern oil revenues in the form of "rent" for the refineries, port and pipelines for a fixed period of time.
Incentives could include further easing of U.S. sanctions, progress towards debt relief or even a possible one-year U.N. Security council suspension of Bashir&${esc.hash}39;s international arrest warrant for war crimes in the separate Darfur conflict.
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