Governments must plan for the possibility of millions of people fleeing their homes, bank report warns
BANGKOK (AlertNet) – Governments in Asia and the Pacific must prepare for the possibility of millions of people fleeing their homes as a result of changing weather patterns or face dealing with the humanitarian crises associated with such large-scale migration, according to a draft report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released this week.
The region faces particular threats from climate change-related sea level rise and storm surges, cyclones and typhoons, flooding and water stress, according to the authors of Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific
However, contrary to conventional portrayals of climate displacement - throngs of refugees seeking shelter across borders - the report says most migration in the region will be within national boundaries, and primarily from rural to urban areas. The movement, the bulk of which will involve poor people, is likely to be influenced by social, political and economic changes as well as climate pressures, the report’s authors said.
In addition, the events most likely to propel millions to leave their homes permanently will be gradual environmental changes such as desertification and sea-level rise rather than sudden disasters, said Bart W. Edes, director of ADB's division on poverty reduction, gender and social development.
“Although the extreme weather events capture the attention of people, it’s the slow onset, where eventually you can no longer grow crops in the area or you can no longer live along the coast because the coast has moved inland, that will drive people away more permanently,” he told AlertNet.
Still, scientists predict extreme events, which have displaced millions in Pakistan, China, Australia and Philippines in the past year alone, are likely to increase and add to migration pressures.
NO EFFECTIVE MIGRATION POLICIES
Many countries are not well placed to tackle growing migration issues, according to the report, part of an ADB program on migration driven by changing weather patterns.
“No international cooperation mechanism has been set up to manage these migration flows, and protection and assistance schemes remain inadequate, poorly coordinated, and scattered,” the report says. It urges urges national governments and the international community to “urgently address this issue in a proactive manner."
According to Edes, the lack of action on migration policy is in part driven by a lack of funding. Until recently, he said, migration plans could not be funded as part of climate change adaptation because migration was considered a failure of adaptation.
Perhaps the biggest barrier to making adequate plans for migration is how controversial the expected movements will be. The prospect of large numbers of people moving to new places raises fears about strained resources in their destination communities and tensions with those already living there, a potential source of conflict and destabilization.
Asia Pacific, home to 60 percent of the world’s population, already has 80 million international migrants and represents a third of the world’s total migrant population. Its urban centres are also seeing explosive growth as internal migrants move from villages to cities. By 2025, the report estimates, 50 percent of the region’s population will be urban.
“That challenge of current migration is not being adequately addressed by social protection measures, by legal protection measures and by physical accommodation to stay in the cities,” Edes said.
“(Climate-linked migration) is adding to the existing problem of large number of migrants challenging the capacities of cities to manage inflows,” he said.
TOUGH DECISIONS AHEAD
Current estimates on how many people may move worldwide as a result of climate pressures vary widely, ranging from 200 million people to 1 billion by 2050. The ADB report tries avoids adding its own figures to the mix, saying too many uncertainties makes it difficult to come up with specific numbers.
However, it says “Uncertainties – especially uncertainties regarding the number of potential migrants – should not be an excuse for inaction. The issue of climate-induced migration will grow in magnitude and will take different forms.”
The report identifies South Asia as the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It also singles out as Asian climate risk ‘hot spots,’ such as booming megacities including Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila, the densely populated low-lying coast of China, southern Pakistan, the deltas of the Mekong, Red and Irrawaddy rivers and the Pacific island states of Kiribati and Tuvalu.
“Governments are going to have to make some difficult decisions,” said Edes. “Short of moving capitals, they are other ways of encouraging the spread of population around a country, including areas that are less at risk of the negative aspects of climate change.”
Should governments proactively try to force people to move from at-risk areas? As concerns mount for already packed cities that are getting more crowded and for vulnerable ones such as Padang in western Sumatra - which scientists say may one day be destroyed by a huge earthquake – the question is being raised.
Edes suggests governments should inform people of the risks involved in staying in such places while creating incentives - like job opportunities and housing - for people to move to safer areas.
Tackling all of that will require “significant funding” from better-off countries and the international community the report says. But not tackling, it says, “could result in humanitarian crises with great social and economic costs.”
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