By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, March 12 (Reuters) - South Sudan on Saturday accused Sudanese president Omar Hassan Al-Bashir of plotting to overthrow the south's government before the secession of the oil-producing region in July.
Senior southern official Pagan Amum said the south would suspend talks with Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) about plans for the secession and would look into alternative routes for sending its oil to market, away from the north. [ID:nLDE72B08M]
Southerners overwhelmingly voted to declare independence from the north in a January referendum promised in a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of north-south civil war.
Below are some implications of the south's announcement.
* The SPLM's move comes at a highly dangerous time for north-south relations, less than four months ahead of the expected secession of the south. The last north-south civil war, fought over oil, ideology and ethnicity, killed an estimated 2 million people and destabilised the whole region.
* All eyes will be on the contested border region of Abyei, where clashes last week between north and south aligned groups already killed more than 100 people, says the southern army. Communities on both sides are heavily armed and analysts have warned it would not take much to reignite fighting. Abyei has long been seen as the most likely place for full north-south violence to restart.
* The south's direct accusation of Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir raises the stakes in already deeply troubled north-south relations. It will be hard for the south to climb down from the allegation, or for the north to shrug it off.
* The SPLM has hit Khartoum where it hurts most, by threatening to re-direct its oil deliveries away from the north. The north currently gets half the revenues from oil found in the south. After the secession of the south, it was hoping to get pipeline and other fees from the south to help cushion the blow. A total loss of money from southern oil would deal a heavy blow to the northern economy, already struggling with an economic crisis, marked by dwindling foreign currency reserves.
* Having said that, it is hard to see how the south will be able to find an alternative route for its oil by July. The south is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues for its income and would not be able to afford to simply turn off the tap. There has been talk of alternative pipeline routes to the sea via Kenya, but these would take years to build. Bashir may see this threat as a sign that the south is bluffing.
* The SPLM, and Pagan Amum in particular, have skilfully used brinkmanship to win concessions from the north in earlier stages of the negotiations. They have suspended talks in the past, only to return to them after the north has given ground.
* Bashir is currently in a relatively weak political position, facing the humiliation of losing a quarter if his country's territory in the south while facing the threat of street protests in the north, inspired by uprisings in neighbouring Egypt and Libya. The north has also been hit by an economic crisis as it continues to battle rebels in its Darfur territory. Bashir may be more willing to make concessions. But it would be foolish to underestimate his oft-tested survival skills and the strength of his hold on the security services and army.
* Washington and other powers will now focus on getting north and south back together round the negotiating table. Unresolved issues include the position of their shared border, the ownership of Abyei, the sharing out of debts and assets and southern oil payments to the north.
* The impact of the talks' suspension may not be as dramatic as it first appears. The discussions, last convened in Ethiopia, had hit a brick wall anyway and both sides were taking a pause, planning to return in April. Past Sudanese treaties have been re-worked and argued over up until the last minute. (Editing by Jon Boyle)
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