By David Lewis
DAKAR, March 18 (Reuters) - Fighting in Ivory Coast's main city is spreading and the death toll from a power struggle between incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo and his rival Alassane Ouattara is mounting.
Here are some questions and answers on the latest developments:
HAS THE CIVIL WAR ALREADY RESTARTED?
It looks like it.
There have been numerous warnings that the election intended to heal rifts from a 2002-3 civil war could instead spark a new conflict. Intense fighting between forces backing the rivals in Abidjan and clashes in the west have now gone on for weeks.
But Ouattara's establishment this week of a new army -- the Republican Forces of Ivory Coast (FRCI) -- ends efforts by his camp to distance the former IMF man from armed conflict.
The move puts gunmen who still control the north and have launched a number of pushes south, as well as any members of the security forces who defect, under his command. [ID:nLDE72G2CF]
One diplomat said the former rebels are already being recognised as members of an army serving under Ouattara.
This could pave the way for more international backing for them, but is unlikely resolve the fractious nature of these forces. A number of analysts say the control and command of these forces is not clear and may sometimes escape Ouattara.
Either way, fighting is intensifying, the death toll is mounting. "If you look at the dead and displaced, it doesn't need to be more to be a civil war," said Kwesi Aning, head of research at the Ghana-based Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre.
DOES THIS CHANGE THE REALITY?
Ouattara said this week Gbagbo has been given his last chance to stand down peacefully, although he did not set a deadline for Gbagbo to comply. He called on the security forces to switch their allegiance to him. [ID:nLDE72E238]
Clashes have spread from the pro-Ouattara Abobo stronghold in Abidjan, bringing automatic and heavy weapons fire closer to the leafy middle class districts closer to the centre of town.
Ouattara's camp looks likely to seek further divisions within the pro-Gbagbo forces before any full-blown offensive.
For now, this means more protracted, low-level skirmishes. At least 25 people were killed on Thursday after shelling by pro-Gbagbo forces, the U.N. said. [ID:nLDE72G1HY]
The death toll from the crisis has risen to more than 435 according to the United Nations, 720 according to the Ouattara camp. Some 12,000 U.N. peacekeepers are urged to do more to protect civilians.
Their mandate allows them to intervene, and they recently secured two Mi-24 helicopter gunships, but they seem reluctant to take robust action against pro-Gbagbo forces.
U.N. officials say part of their problem is that Gbagbo's forces are the main threat to civilians, so protecting the public would sometimes mean firing on the Ivorian military, which risks dragging peacekeepers into active conflict.
HOW WILL THE REGION RESPOND?
The African Union's reconfirmation of Ouattara as the president after weeks of mediation by African presidents was a significant blow to Gbagbo, who had sought to play on divisions across the continent over the U.N.'s rapid backing of his rival.
South Africa, the most significant nation to waver in support for Ouattara, this week confirmed it stood by the AU's decision, in a move that analysts say will make it harder for other nations like Angola to back Gbagbo. [ID:nLDE72G1GF]
However, regional military intervention, as threatened by West Africa's ECOWAS bloc, still appears a long way off.
Regional powerhouse Nigeria, without which an operation is unlikely, is weeks away from a presidential election while other nations remain reluctant to commit to any such force.
Tacit international backing of anti-Gbagbo forces now officially in Ouattara's army could follow, although such a move would be highly sensitive and, if publicised, could provoke further escalation of nationalistic rhetoric and violence.
WHAT ABOUT THE ECOMOMY AND COCOA EXPORTS?
The crisis has long since paralysed the world's top grower's cocoa exports, with some 475,000 tonnes of beans sitting in storage due to a ban on shipments by Ouattara and EU sanctions.
The drying up of beans has sent cocoa futures to 30-year highs before prices fell back following Japan's earthquake.
There are increasing fears over the quality of the beans as the rainy season approaches [ID:nLDE72F1QD]. Unless the crisis swiftly ends, it is not clear what will happen to the 200,000-odd tonne mid-crop that is still on trees.
Smuggling has helped farmers sell their crop via neighbours, but slowed as Ghana reinforced border controls [ID:nLDE7191N3].
The banking sector is seizing up and the IMF warns of "serious risks" for the West Africa region. [ID:nN17275454]
A defaulted ${esc.dollar}2.3 billion Eurobond <CI049648839=RRPS> is trading at 36 percent of face value, and some analysts think this an attractive entry level on the hope for a resolution. (Editing by Tim Cocks and Peter Graff)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
