* McGuinness says militants lack capability to strike London
* Says bomb hoaxes more likely than actual attacks
* Sinn Fein could become largest party after Thursday vote
By Conor Humphries
BELFAST, May 3 (Reuters) - Militant nationalists in Northern Ireland lack the capability to launch a significant attack at London's 2012 Olympic Games or against the British queen's visit to Dublin, guerrilla-turned-politician Martin McGuinness said.
The British government said in February that dissident Irish nationalists, opposed to a 1998 peace deal that ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, posed a security threat to the Olympics next year. [ID:nLDE71D1LW]
Attacks in the British-controlled province in recent months have caused police to upgrade the threat from dissidents to "severe".
There are concerns that such groups could target Queen Elizabeth's visit to the Republic of Ireland later this month but McGuinness, a former senior commander in the Irish Republican Army (IRA), told Reuters on Tuesday their capabilities were limited.
"They have the ability to go to a phone box, put 10 pence in the box and cause a bomb scare. But a 12-year-old could do that," said McGuinness, deputy leader of nationalist party Sinn Fein and deputy head of Northern Ireland's regional assembly.
"You can never rule out that someone can do a one-off, but my assessment of their military capabilities is they are very limited indeed."
McGuinness faces re-election to Northern Ireland's assembly on Thursday in a vote that has been overshadowed by a series of attacks by dissident groups, including the first killing of a policeman in the region in two years, an attack he described as unjustifiable. [ID:nLDE73L0GH]
POPULAR SUPPORT
Despite frequent attacks on police and government targets, the groups lack popular support that the IRA had in the 1970s and 80s, McGuinness said.
"There are a handful of those people in every constituency," he said. "People were prepared to challenge us four years ago, but there is no challenge now."
Sinn Fein's dominance among nationalist voters has raised the possibility that it could become the largest party in Northern Ireland, making McGuiness First Minister, although analysts say this is unlikely.
"Mathematically it is a possibility," McGuinness said. "But we are not prepared to count our chickens before they hatch."
He said if Sinn Fein came first he would offer to share the title of First Minister with the leader of the second largest party, likely the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
The DUP is currently the largest party and shares power with Sinn Fein under a system that obliges pro-British unionists to share power with former enemies in the pro-Irish community.
DUP leader Peter Robinson admitted that McGuinness could become first minister if the unionist vote was split evenly with the rival Ulster Unionist party, but warned he would not be fully capable of representing the country.
"When there is a royal wedding it is important that the First Minister is there. When our troops come back from Afghanistan it is important the First Minister is there to meet them," Robinson told Reuters at a campaign event on Tuesday.
"You won't get that with Martin McGuinness."
(Editing by Carmel Crimmins)
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