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Threat to Afghans high despite bin Laden death

by Nia Willaams | Thomson Reuters Foundation
Thursday, 12 May 2011 13:08 GMT

Afghanistan ranks third in survey of nations at risk of mass killings

p>LONDON (AlertNet) - Afghanistan could become even more dangerous for civilians this year, with the death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden doing little to stem Taliban attacks, a rights group said on Thursday.

Afghanistan has seen a rise in civilian killings in the past five years, from just under 1,000 in 2006 to nearly 3,000 in 2010, Minority Rights Group International (MRG) said in its latest annual survey of "Peoples Under Threat".

The country came third in the MRG index of 70 nations, ranking where civilians are deemed most at risk of mass killings, behind Somalia and Sudan. It was placed fourth during the previous four years.

Three-quarters of the 3,000 deaths last year were caused by the Taliban, and 440 by NATO and the United States, the MRG report said, citing U.N. figures.

"The death of Osama Bin Laden is unlikely to affect either the growth of local insurgencies or the ability of the Taliban to mount operations in Kabul and other major centres," MRG Executive Director Mark Lattimer said in a statement.

"The continued weakness of the central government, internal disunity and systemic corruption contribute to the poor prognosis, as does the fact that the Taliban now appear able to carry out complex, coordinated attacks in the capital."

Lattimer also cited ethnic divisions as a possible cause of bloodshed if there is any further escalation of the conflict or a major re-alignment of power in Kabul.

Bin Laden was shot dead by special U.S. forces last week in a compound in Pakistan.

IVORY COAST RISK JUMPS

London-based MRG uses a basket of 10 indicators to calculate its rankings, including prevailing conflict, previous experience of genocide, governance and economic risk.

It said some countries that have risen sharply up the table in the past five years have later been accused of gross human rights violations, including Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Yemen.

Violence surrounding last November's disputed presidential election in the Ivory Coast made it one of the biggest risers in the MRG table, moving up nine slots to the 10th most dangerous place.

Although former President Laurent Gbagbo was overthrown a month ago by supporters loyal to new leader Alassane Ouattara, more than one million people have been displaced, and armed militias on both sides are threatening revenge attacks, the report said.

"The level of cooperation across the north-south divide is poor and inter-community trust largely absent," it added.

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