* Kabila seen to have fallen short on 2006 goals
* Kivus may be key batttleground in Nov. 28 poll
* Rivals may also struggle to command vote majority
By Jonny Hogg
GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Congo's Joseph Kabila faces a struggle in next month's election to hold onto the eastern provinces that sealed his victory in 2006, as voters there punish him for a perceived failure to provide peace and prosperity.
Kabila scored 58 percent in Congo's first presidential election after a decade of war that claimed five million lives and drew in six African countries.
Victory was partly assured by the 90 percent landslide support he received from North and South Kivu, the two eastern provinces whose inhabitants put their faith in him to bring former rebels to heel and offer them a better future.
Five years on, Kabila launched his re-election campaign by saying there were "no more fires in the east, only embers" -- a bold assertion given that armed groups and the Congolese army continue to clash and commit atrocities against the locals.
With rivals confident of taking a number of western and central provinces, including the capital Kinshasa, Kabila's chances of re-election could hinge on how he does in the Kivus, home to 15 percent of Congo's 32 million voters.
"Kabila won the last elections because of the Kivus," said independent analyst Jason Stearns.
"If he fails to carry (them) this time it will not be a fatal blow, but it will definitely reduce his chances of winning the elections," he added.
IS PROGRESS SCANT...
Kabila came to power in 2001 following the assassination of his father Laurent Kabila, heading a fractious government of national unity until the 2006 polls.
For many easterners, finding good things to say about the last five years is a tough task.
Although open conflict with homegrown Tutsi-led rebels has ended, fighting continues against Rwandan Hutu rebels. Other rebels including former pro-government Mai Mai militia, Lord's Resistance Army and Islamic ADF-NALU fighters still roam.
Mass rapes and other abuses are an ever-present threat for locals, raising doubts over the effectiveness of the Congolese army and the 17,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force.
Moreover, with neighbouring Rwanda seen by many easterners as a meddling force, the fact that Kabila has patched up ties with Kigali to the extent that its troops have conducted joint patrols on Congolese soil could lose him votes, Stearns argued.
Regular power cuts and the potholed and rock-strewn roads in the region's biggest city, Goma, are proof to some that Kabila has also failed to deliver on promises to provide the vital infrastructure needed to grow the local economy.
"If I said Kabila had done nothing I'd be lying. He has done things, but not much," said Nzangi Mwanda as he sold cheap Chinese mobile phones at a roadside market in Goma.
"In 2006 we voted for Kabila but this time we don't know who to vote for. We're waiting to see who can improve things, who can develop the country," he added.
...OR JUST GRADUAL?
Others say that while the progress under Kabila has been slow, it is nonetheless there.
Military operations with the United Nations have seen key armed groups in the east weakened, according to some observers.
Around 5,000 fighters from the Rwandan rebel group FDLR have been demobilised since 2009 according to the UN, and thousands of other ex-rebels have been integrated into the armed forces.
Yet the government has failed to communicate these security improvements, according to the Jean-Claude Kibala, vice governor of South Kivu province and a Kabila supporter.
"We know we're not going to have the same number of votes as we did in 2006," he told Reuters in an interview.
"But I think we'll have the time during the campaign to explain to the population what we've done," he said, arguing that turning round the fortunes of a region the size of Greece was always going to take time.
While Kabila may face a drain of support in the east, it is by no means clear who of his many rivals will benefit.
Kabila's former ally Vital Kamerhe, who was credited by some with helping him take the east in 2006, is running himself as president this time -- but could see his support eroded by a second eastern candidate, Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi.
Other serious challengers may also struggle. Veteran politician Etienne Tshisekedi is largely identified with Kinshasa and is by no means certain to garner votes here.
Stearns said Kabila, with a bigger electoral warchest than his rivals, may still have to try and convince local leaders to urge their communities to back him -- a common tactic in Africa where ethnic and traditional power structures remain strong.
"How the vote goes will depend on how he can co-opt local allies," he said. (Editing by Mark John/Maria Golovnina)
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