Shortages of food and other key resources are creating 'conditions for conflict', expert says
LONDON (AlertNet) - This past year the world has witnessed a spike in food prices, which some experts believe correlate with the rising number of developing countries experiencing societal unrest.
“Climate change increases the probability of extreme weather, which is likely to result in increased scarcity of food, land and water and access to other resources,” said Rob Bailey, an energy, environment and development expert at Chatham House, a London-based international affairs organization.
Where vital resources are scarce, there will be “conditions for conflict,” he said in a telephone interview.
Pinpointing a direct cause for social unrest, of course, is always difficult, he said.
But “what is certain is that higher food prices result in grievance and tension, by making life harder for people,” Bailey said.
Josette Sheeran, head of the World Food Program, put it perfectly, Bailey noted, when she said, “When people are hungry, they have three options: they can revolt, they can migrate, or they can die.”
Although there is no evidence that extreme weather events can be blamed entirely for hikes in food prices, some connections can be made.
Bailey gave the example of recent drought and flooding that has led to a reduction in available agricultural land in some developing countries – among them Kenya, Pakistan, Thailand, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and El Salvador. With less available land to grow crops, fewer crops are harvested, and the price increases.
Bailey points to last year’s Russian heat wave, which wiped out much of the wheat crop. As a result of the severe cuts in harvestable wheat, prices for wheat skyrocketed.
The Russian heat wave has yet to be definitively linked to climate change, but there is growing concern that climate change is increasingly extreme weather, creating ripple effects.
“Climate change will increase food insecurity, and poorer countries are the most vulnerable. Climate change is (also) a threat multiplier for conflict, because it has the potential to exacerbate existing socio-economic tensions and increase scarcity,” Bailey noted in a presentation for the A4ID Climate Change Knowledge Group last week.
Bailey suggested four interventions to help diminish the problems aggravated with scarce resources: mitigate climate change, adopt adaptation strategies, implement policies to distribute scarce resources and create an effective plan to deal with extreme weather shocks when they occur.
With the UN climate negotiations in Durban approaching, Bailey stressed the need for experts to draft new policies to cope with the wide range of climate change ripple effects.
“Current institutions, frameworks and resources are inadequate,” he said.
Katie Murray is an AlertNet Climate intern.
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