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"The mood here is delay, delay, delay. But for us, it's now, now, now," island negotiators say
It’s obvious to most at the U.N. climate talks in Durban, South Africa, that there’s a dramatic mismatch between the worrying pace of climate change and the crawling progress of the negotiations.
A growing numbers of studies suggest that, as global emissions continue to rise, the world is heading toward an average temperature increase not of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius – the level scientists consider relatively safe – but of at least 3 to 4 degrees. That’s enough to provoke much faster melting of glaciers, worsening sea-level rise and more extreme weather, from heat waves to droughts, floods and stronger hurricanes.
At the same time, there’s talk of pushing back until 2020 the deadline to produce a new binding global emissions reduction treaty to replace or complement the Kyoto Protocol – the only such treaty in effect now. And many signatories to the Kyoto Protocol are resisting its continuation after the first commitment period ends in 2012.
That picture of contradiction - fast-looming problems but painstaking slowly progress - is provoking growing frustration at COP17, not least among small island states like Tuvalu and Nauru, where the impacts of climate change - drought, stronger storm surges and increasing salinity of drinking water - are an immediate crisis, not a future one.
“The mood here is delay, delay, delay. But for us, it’s now, now, now,” noted Dessima Williams, a former Grenada ambassador and now president of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
The islands find themselves in a quandary. If they go along with the current glacial pace of negotiations, their countries may fail before a deal is reached. But if they walk out to make a point, they won’t be able to continue pushing a deal along – a potentially even worse outcome.
“We can’t afford to leave the table – or others will make decisions for us,” said Ronald Jumeau, the Seychelles ambassador to the United States and the United Nations.
The fear, said Marlene Moses, Nauru’s ambassador to the United Nations, is that “no one heeds our call until it’s too late, (that) it takes something catastrophic.”
FRESH WATER RUNNING SHORT
That catastrophe, on a small scale at least, is already underway in places like the Pacific island of Tuvalu, which in recent months saw drought dry up its drinking water supplies, forcing the emergency delivery of desalinisation units.
Other islands are running short of fresh groundwater to grow enough food, and are relying increasingly on imports, or are striving to adopt salt-resistant crops, even as worsening sea erosion reduces the land available for agriculture.
“Long before they disappear physically from maps, (islands) will run out of fresh water,” warned Michael K. Dorsey, a climate justice expert at Dartmouth College in the United States, and a founder of Islands First, an organisation aimed at helping at-risk small island developing states build capacity to negotiate on climate issues.
The one bit of good news for small island states - beyond continuing efforts to get a new Green Climate Fund functioning that could channel money for projects to adapt to the new pressures - is that key strategic alliances show early signs of shifting in Durban.
NEW GLOBAL DIVIDE
As global emissions continue to rise and fears of dramatic climate shifts grow, the traditional division between industrialised and developing countries - North and South, rich and poor - shows signs, albeit ever so slowly, of shifting to a new divide - between countries who want urgent action, and those who do not.
“A new global divide is forming, between serious and not serious countries, those that are legitimately trying to avoid a planetary catastrophe and those who for various reasons - greed, minority interests, economic agendas - are not seriously engaging in this process,” Dorsey said.
Just who fits into each category is still unclear, particularly in a few key instances. China, for instance, continues to build legions of coal-fired power plants that will churn out climate-changing emissions for decades to come, and has surpassed the United States to become the world’s biggest carbon emitter, well ahead of predictions.
But China also is investing at least three times more money than the United States in green and renewable energy and technology that can help curb emissions long-term, Dorsey said.
The gradual regrouping, combined with a push by Mexico and other nations to consider allowing nations at the climate talks to make some decisions with less than unanimous support, may lay the groundwork for faster decision-making ahead.
“Durban may not be a turning point, but fundamental changes are coming,” predicted Jumeau of the Seychelles.
Whether they will be in time to protect vulnerable islands from the worst impacts of climate change seems unlikely, however, particularly as concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere have hit 387 parts per million – already above the 350 parts per million the islands consider relatively safe.
At home in Nauru, Moses said, the weather increasingly varies between heavy rain and drought. Coastal fields are eroding, and both food and water are now in increasingly short supply. As corals die and the ocean becomes more acidic as it absorbs carbon, scientists expect Nauru will be able to survive on fishing for only another 15 years.
With no plan to uproot its people and move elsewhere, Nauru must negotiate to survive, Moses said.
“Survivability of our people is central to what we do, what we believe in and what we are pushing,” she said.
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