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A new project will compare crops and practices between warmer sites in Kenya and Zimbabwe to prepare for climate change
By Jerome Bossuet, communications specialist with the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
As climate change begins to have noticeable impacts, farmers will have to adapt their practices progressively. They will need to use the most appropriate technologies and farm management methods to alleviate the effects of a predicted 3-degree Celsius temperature rise. But how can they imagine what their situation will be in 2050?
A project called CALESA (Climate Analogue Locations in Eastern and Southern Africa) aims to help them find some answers by testing different agricultural adaptation strategies at four pairs of “twinned” pilot sites in Kenya and Zimbabwe.
In each country, one location with a dry climate has been selected and one with a wetter climate. These have been paired with “analogue” sites in the same country, which have similar rainfall characteristics but a warmer average temperature, allowing comparative research to be carried out, first involving crops and then bringing in local communities.
Agriculture experts forecast that global agricultural production will have to increase by 70 percent, and should double in developing countries in order to feed the 9 billion people predicted to be on the planet in 2050. In sub-Saharan Africa in particular, rain-fed smallholder agriculture will remain as vital as it is today, continuing to provide nearly 90 percent of staple food production.
The households living on such farms are among the world’s poorest and most vulnerable rural people, and they are already struggling to cope with shifting climate and rainfall patterns. The challenge to boost their harvests is a tough one, given that climate change will further complicate their livelihoods. In some sub-Saharan African countries, crop yields are predicted to fall by 50 percent by 2050.
The uniqueness of the “analogue locations” concept is that it doesn’t just rely on modeling, but takes a more concrete and practical approach by identifying the best adaptation strategies with communities themselves. If farmers can visit their “future climate” – in some cases less than 100 kilometres away - they can then visualise and start planning for longer-term climate patterns and their accompanying risks.
Climate models predict a 3 degree rise by the end of the century for eastern and southern African, while changes in rainfall are less certain. A warmer temperature induces changes in crop development - a shorter flowering stage for instance. This means the crops farmers grow now may no longer be suitable and yields may drastically decrease.
COMPARING CROP PERFORMANCE
The impacts of climate change are expected to be more severe in the semi-arid tropics, where current temperatures are already close to the upper limit of optimum conditions for most crops.
Over the next three years (2011-2013), the CALESA project will test the performance of various crop varieties across at the selected analogue locations in Kenya and Zimbabwe, corresponding to dry and wet climates within the semi-arid tropics.
Trial data will help calibrate crop models which could then be used to estimate crop performance in relation to climate change and extrapolate the impact on agricultural productivity at a larger scale. Crops to be tested in field research stations include maize, sorghum, groundnut, common bean, pigeonpea and cowpea.
A range of improved farm management practices will also be trialled such as tied-ridge-and-furrow, a soil tillage technique that helps conserve water at the plant roots; application of fertiliser in microdoses; adjusting sowing rates to match crop densities with changing conditions; and simple seed priming and seed treatment interventions.
These technologies will be evaluated for practicality, productivity and profitability to see whether and how they could help farmers cope with the negative impacts of future warmer climates.
INVOLVING FARMERS, INCLUDING WOMEN
The analogue locations will be studied in a participatory way with farming communities close to the pilot sites, exploring crops and crop diversity, soils, climate, current farming practices and livestock management, as well as the roles of male and female farmers.
Farmers’ perceptions of climate-induced risks and climate change will be studied from a gender perspective. The project will look at whether there are significant differences in adaptation strategies between men and women, such as choice of crop and variety, livelihood diversification and resource allocation. In Kenya and Zimbabwe, women usually have fewer options available, so what will this mean for them in terms of climate change adaptation?
All governments need climate change research in order to predict the risks and opportunities for their country in the coming decades. But this is especially so in developing nations in sub-Saharan Africa where over three-quarters of the population rely on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and are very vulnerable to climate change.
Analogue locations could offer “living” laboratories for decision-makers to grasp the type and scale of risks their rural populations will be exposed to, as well as the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation initiatives. This is valuable information at a time when countries like Kenya are writing their National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA).
The CALESA research will help identify agricultural development and research priorities for the future, strengthen understanding of which technologies to promote, and contribute to developing the most likely livelihood scenarios.
Conventional crop breeding takes 10 to 15 years to develop new varieties. Information from this project will help breeding programmes ensure the varieties they are working on meet farmer’s future needs and local demand amid a changing climate.
African countries need to build their climate adaptation capacity and invest in effective local adaptation plans now. The hope is that CALESA’s comparative research will make a useful contribution in pointing the way forward for their rural communities.
For more information on the project, please visit the CALESA website at www.calesa-project.net.
CALESA’s team is eager to exchange experiences with other climate change adaptation practitioners in the region and discuss the relevance of this new methodology of analogue locations. Please contact Dr David Harris at ICRISAT: d.harris@cgiar.org
The CALESA project, funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ Germany), is implemented by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) in cooperation with the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Zimbabwe Meteorological Department (ZMD), Midlands State University (MSU), Zimbabwe, and Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (HUAS), Germany.
