* Security clampdown in edgy capital Kinshasa
* Parliamentary poll results due in days
* Kabila may face more foreign scrutiny in new term
By Jonny Hogg
KINSHASA, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Truckloads of heavily-armed presidential guards cruising the streets of Kinshasa are a sign that Democratic Republic of Congo, traumatised by war, risks tipping back into chaos after flawed November elections.
Official results gave President Joseph Kabila an easy win in the central African country that is a treasure trove of mineral wealth. But the opposition refuses to accept his victory after polls that international observers said lacked credibility.
Far from being strengthened by his re-election, Kabila now has his work cut out to forge a stable government from the messy political landscape - in which his own party looks set to suffer losses in parliament - and to ensure that foreign support and aid do not dry up.
Aubin Minaku, secretary-general of the coalition of pro-Kabila parties, said Kabila will be under pressure to form a government that is inclusive in order to maintain a strong mandate over the vast country.
"Everything depends on how he organises his government, with his prime minister, everything depends on how he initiates international cooperation," said Minaku said.
Instead of showing the world that Congo has moved on from a 1998-2003 war that claimed 5 million lives, the Nov. 28 election highlighted just how far it still has to go on the path to democracy and stability. The country has some of the world's largest deposits of minerals including tin and coltan, used in making cell phones and computers.
European Union observers said up to 1.6 million votes were not counted nationwide. In the capital Kinshasa - an opposition stronghold - votes from 2,000 polling stations disappeared. The United States described the election as "seriously flawed".
Despite the pomp of a 21-gun salute and military parade, Kabila's Dec. 20 inauguration was a muted affair in a heavily protected compound, attended by a few thousand supporters whilst the rest of the city remained under tight security.
Patrols have eased in recent days, but convoys of armed presidential guards remain a common sight.
Unlike in 2006, when Kabila won internationally backed and widely praised polls, just one head of state, Zimbabwe's pariah President Robert Mugabe, attended the swearing-in this time.
GUNFIRE AT NIGHT
The Kinshasa residence of opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, who says he won the election and staged a parallel swearing-in ceremony in his own back garden, is under a security watch. Attempts by his supporters to protest have been met with tear gas and stun grenades from the authorities.
Human Rights Watch says 24 people have been killed by security forces since Kabila's victory. Local media stations have been shut down and Radio France International was taken off the air for broadcasting "hate speech", according to Minister of Communications Lambert Mende.
In Tshisekedi's home city of Mbuji Mayi in East Kasai province, shooting is heard most nights as locals clash with security forces, said Alexis Kasuasua, head of the local grouping of civil society bodies.
"The situation is intolerable. It's like a balloon, and if you keep putting more air into it, it will explode," he said.
But with a heavy presence of security forces, still loyal to Kabila, it seems unlikely the street clashes will escalate into full-blown conflict.
Kabila has sought to play down tensions, using his New Year's address to call for unity. He vowed to continue efforts to rebuild the country.
"Never forget that elections are a regular occurrence. They are an opportunity for the country to come together rather than splitting into hostile factions," he said.
In the weeks to come, Kabila's ability to nurture a sense of unity will depend on how the outcome of parliamentary elections held on the same day as the presidential vote is managed.
So far, around half the results have been announced, with the ruling PPRD set to be the largest party, but far short of the absolute majority it was targeting, with Tshisekedi's UDPS in second. Full results are expected within days.
The process, in which no fewer than 18,000 candidates are vying for 500 seats, has already been engulfed by a blizzard of complaints, with politicians from all sides crying foul, accusing each other and the electoral commission of fraud.
If the results are seen as no more credible than those of the presidential election, Congo could be in for more unrest.
"The population already wants to take to the streets. We've said, 'No, we must wait'," said independent candidate Romeo Materanya, who disputes his defeat in the eastern city of Goma.
"If there's a problem of legitimacy we can't expect to have lasting peace," he told Reuters.
KABILA ALLIES NOT HAPPY
Anger has also spread to the disparate group of parties in Kabila's own coalition, with many candidates who campaigned for him now fearing they will end up with no seat in parliament.
Satirising the mutual accusations of electoral fraud even among pro-Kabila allies, one newspaper cartoon depicted two boxers, both from Kabila's presidential majority, furiously fighting whilst the electoral commission attempts to referee.
"There are lots of angry politicians ... and angry politicians are dangerous," Remy Ruzinge, a candidate who ran as part of the presidential alliance, told Reuters.
He said Kabila should be careful not to spark renewed armed rebellions like those still simmering in Congo's eastern provinces since the 1998-2003 war.
"The government must take care ... Kabila has done a lot to bring peace to the east, but it's still fragile, he must do everything to avoid angering the population," Ruzinge said.
Ruzinge and others say one step Kabila could take would be to distance himself from some of the more abrasive elements in his own PPRD party, whom coalition partners accuse of having trampled over their concerns in recent weeks.
Another step would be to foster a rapprochement with the opposition, for example by offering them some kind of role in future government. But Tshisekedi's insistence that he is the rightful president does not make things any easier.
"In another country he would be in prison, it's a flagrant breach of the constitution," said Minaku of Tshisekedi's claim.
"I imagine it would be possible (to negotiate) with his successor, but not with him," he added.
So far, there has been no sign that international dismay over the election chaos has altered world policy towards Congo, which remains heavily dependent on foreign aid and support for key projects such as reform of its security sector. Peacekeeping alone in Congo costs the United Nations $1.4 billion every year.
But a Western diplomat in Kinshasa said Kabila and his government may face stronger foreign pressure to improve human rights and introduce political reforms.
"Business as usual is not an option," the diplomat said. (Editing by Mark John and Rosalind Russell)
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