(Corrects figure in fifth paragraph to 1 mln, not 10 mln)
By John Foley
HONG KONG, Feb 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The kidnapping of 29 Chinese workers in Sudan shows that China's "don't intervene" policy is coming under strain. As the world's most populous country guns for the economic number one spot, it will not be as easy to keep out of conflicts. Even if China desires a softer alternative to the Pax Americana, history suggests that with power comes aggression.
Fence-sitting has been a central pillar of China's foreign policy since the 1950s, when Premier Zhou Enlai promised not to interfere in India's domestic business. Whereas the United States values governance and democracy, China prefers trade and investment. That strategy makes sense for a resource-hungry latecomer to the game of economic colonialism, even if it leaves the country open to accusations of turning a blind eye to undesirable regimes.
But not taking sides is not always enough. The kidnapping will push Beijing towards taking a more active role in the dispute over oil revenue between Sudan and newly independent South Sudan. Iran is another challenge. China can refuse to support Western sanctions, but it would not be happy about major disruptions to the oil market or a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic. With so much self-interest at stake, non-interference looks self-defeating.
If China finds a way to get rich and remain mostly peaceful, it would be good for everyone. So far the signs are good. President Hu Jintao talks of a "harmonious world", and has tackled regimes like Sudan's with aid and dialogue -- while sending peacekeeping troops to countries like East Timor, and deploying a naval force to the Aden Gulf in 2008 to protect merchant ships from pirates.
But the "Pax Sinensis" has two major challenges. One is China's skewed birth rate, which produces 1 million surplus boys every year. The other is its interconnectedness. China is already the world's largest importer of coal, soybeans and iron ore. When global markets are threatened, it can no longer sit by. Much as China might like to return to the way it was five hundred years ago -- rich, self-sufficient and largely left alone by the world -- that's no longer an option.
CONTEXT NEWS
-- China sent a team of officials to Sudan to seek the release of 29 workers being held by rebels on the border state of South Kordofan. A report by the Sudanese state news agency saying that 14 of the workers had been freed was denied by Chinese and Sudanese officials on Jan. 30.
-- The Philippines has held talks with the United States on expanding the American military presence in South-East Asia in response to China's growing assertiveness, the Washington Post reported on Jan. 26. Beijing and Manila both claim sovereignty over some islands in the South China Sea.
-- China invested $60 billion overseas in 2011, 1.8 percent more than the previous year, not including bank loans. That brought the total stock to $322 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Investment into China totaled $116 billion in the same year.
-- Reuters: China sends team to Sudan seeking release of workers
-- For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on (Editing by Edward Hadas and Martin Langfield)
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