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London Somalia Conference on Feb. 23 to address security, politics, humanitarian crisis and more
By Katy Migiro
Somalia’s famine may be over for now but, ahead of this week’s London Somalia Conference, some experts say the international community needs to pay more attention to opening dialogue with al Shabaab militants as a means to stabilise the war-ravaged state.
Years of anarchy since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, combined with frequent drought and rampant inflation, have turned Somalia into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Much of the fighting now is between government forces and gunmen loyal to hardline Islamist group al Shabaab.
“Al Shabaab became much more unpopular because of its poor handling of the famine and its refusal to acknowledge that there were serious food deficiencies in the areas that they controlled,” said EJ Hogendoorn, the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa project director.
Al Shabaab rebels have previously banned some U.N. and international aid agencies from working in Somalia. The rebels have blamed food aid for creating dependency.
With half a billion dollars poured into feeding starving Somalis over the last six months, the situation has improved from level 5, famine, to level 4, emergency. But, as images of starving Somali children drop off the news agenda, humanitarian agencies look set to find it harder to raise the $1.5 billon they are asking for to support Somalia’s recovery in 2012.
“This money will be wasted if there is no political solution in Somalia,” said Hogendoorn.
Finding a political solution for Somalia – torn by two decades of conflict – will be a steep task for delegates of the Feb.23 conference that will focus on politics, terrorism, humanitarian crisis and piracy in the country.
But some say, in order to work on a solution, the conference should be open to all parties.
“The only people that they have called (to the conference) are on one side. I think, personally, they should have called al Shabaab on board,” said Hamza Mohamed, a Somali filmmaker.
“They would have been trying to find a solution. I think they are strengthening one side of the war and hoping al Shabaab will disappear.”
AMISOM FORCE
African Union peacekeeper forces, AMISOM, forced al Shabaab to pull out of Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, in August. Now al Shabaab is now fighting a war on three fronts against AMISOM, Kenya and Ethiopia.
The talks in London will also focus on paying for an expanded 18,000-strong AMISOM force, largely funded by the European Union.
“The African-international coalition envisages a military victory over the Islamists, creating the condition for a national political bargain,” Alex de Waal, director of the World Peace Foundation, wrote on the website African Arguments, which is hosted by the Royal African Society and the Social Science Research Council.
Some observers are critical of this plan.
“The strategy that the (Somali) government and international community are now employing to stabilise Somalia neglects reconciliation with the rebels and relies too much on external military muscle,” wrote Afyare Abdi Elmi, assistant professor of International Affairs at Qatar University and Abdi Aynte, a Somali-American journalist, in Foreign Affairs.
“The Somali government and its backers should instead focus on establishing a competent security sector and starting genuine negotiations with those rebels who are interested in a political solution – and there are some.”
Mark Bradbury, an analyst with the Rift Valley Institute, said delegates at the conference could use the opportunity to learn from the past.
“It might be good to see at the London Conference some kind of acknowledgement among those present that policies they have pursued over the last few years have been partly responsible for creating the famine conditions in Somalia, some acknowledgements of those past mistakes and a commitment to rectify in the future,” Bradbury said.
This looks unlikely to happen.
But history suggests that there is scope for the West to talk with al Shabaab.
Britain’s war with Northern Ireland ended through secret negotiations with the Irish Republican Army. And today, the United States is in talks with the Taliban.
“The legitimation of `terrorist' groups through talks can be a means to transform a conflict away from violence,” said Harmonie Toros of the Department of International Politics at the University of Wales.
Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was chairman of the Union of Islamic Courts, which Ethiopia and the United States ousted militarily in 2006, replacing it with the current Transitional Federal Government.
“Certain elements in the current Transitional Federal Government in Somalia were once on the wanted list so it’s not impossible that ways can be found to talk with al Shabaab,” said Bradbury.
“At some point, if those people retain any power in Somalia, they need to be brought into a political process.”
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