Continuing climate-linked sea level rise will turn 'yesterday's manageable flood into tomorrow's potential disaster'
NEW YORK (AlertNet)—If global warming continues at its current pace, within the next two decades coastal flooding in the United States threatens to put millions of American homes under water and to cause billions of dollars in damage, according to a new report from Climate Central, a non-profit research organisation.
The report concludes that by 2030 many U.S. coastal communities will probably see storm surges combining with sea level rise to raise waters at least 4 feet (1.3 metres) above the local high-tide level. This threatens the nearly 5 million Americans who live in 2.6 million homes on land below this level.
That includes more than 105 municipalities in Florida, the most vulnerable state, as well as 65 in Louisiana, and 10 or more in New York (13), New Jersey (22), Maryland (14), Virginia (10) and North Carolina (22).
Backed by two just-published peer-reviewed studies, the report, titled “Surging Seas,” is the first major analysis of sea level rise in 20 years, according to its lead author, Ben Strauss. He notes that sea level already has risen about 8 inches (20 cm) globally since 1880 with scientists projecting an additional 20 to 80 more inches (50 to 200 cm) during this century, depending on the emissions of heat-trapping gases.
IMMINENT AND SERIOUS RISK
“The risks are imminent and serious,” said Strauss in a statement. “Just a small amount of sea level rise, including what we may well see within the next 20 years, can turn yesterday’s manageable flood into tomorrow’s potential disaster.”
The report also asserts it is the first to provide estimates of land, population and housing at risk; evaluations of every low-lying coastal community in the contiguous U.S.; localised timelines of storm surge threats and an interactive map and data available for download.
The Surging Seas website includes state fact sheets. They indicate that the state of Florida is the most vulnerable, with about $30 billion of taxable property at risk below the three-foot high tide line just in three counties in the southeastern part of the state. That does not include Miami-Dade, the county most at risk in the state and in the nation.
According to the report, flooding to 4 feet (1.3 metres) would threaten some 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) of infrastructure in the U.S., including roads, bridges, commercial buildings, military bases, agricultural lands, toxic waste dumps, schools and hospitals. The cost of damage would be in the billions of dollars, it said.
The report does not make recommendations. However, it notes, “it is clear from the findings here that in order to avoid the worst impacts, the United States must work to slow sea level rise by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases, and work to diminish the remaining danger by preparing for higher seas in coastal cities and counties everywhere.”
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